| 08/30/10 | The Calendar for September |
| | As we head into September, I’ve developed a calendar of key economic indicators and meaningful market events that I’ll be watching throughout the month. |
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| 08/29/10 | Closing Out August |
| | The capital markets continue to navigate through some strong headwinds in the form of softening economic data. |
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| 08/25/10 | Initial Jobless Claims |
| | 1. Initial Jobless Claims fell 31,000 to 473,000
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| 08/23/10 | The Strongest Headwinds |
| | The equity market recovery in July has encountered multiple headwinds in August. I believe it began with Wednesday, August 11th’s import data from China (Fig 1.1). |
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| 08/22/10 | The Week Ahead: August 23 |
| | The capital markets continue to navigate through a period of heightened sensitivity to every economic report. |
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| 08/19/10 | Initial Jobless Claims |
| | Initial Jobless Claims rose 12,000 to 500,000
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| 08/19/10 | Germany's GDP Forecast Raised |
| | The first half of 2010 was clearly as challenging a period for the euro zone as it has experienced since the creation of the euro itself. |
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| 08/15/10 | The Week Ahead - August 16-20
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| | The capital markets head into the final three weeks of August with light volume, abundant pessimism, and maximum frustration.
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| 08/11/10 | Why Are The Capital Markets Softening |
| | On the morning of Wednesday, August 11, investors woke up to a significantly lower S&P 500. |
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| 08/09/10 | KISS - AGRICULTURE |
| | During the mid-2000s, rising demand for agriculture from the emerging markets, in particular China, encouraged investors to actively incorporate agriculture investments in their portfolios. |
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| 08/09/10 | Today's FOMC Meeting |
| | CHANGE IN LANGUAGE – TONE: From the June 23rd meeting, 1st paragraph: “Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the economic recovery is proceeding and that the labor market is improving gradually. Household spending is increasing”
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| 08/08/10 | The Week Ahead - August 9 |
| | Last Friday’s disappointing jobs report and the post-market corporate news from Hewlett Packard (HPQ) should have vacationing money managers draining cell phone batteries checking in with the office early this week.
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| 08/05/10 | August Jobs Report |
| | Overall employment fell by 131,000 jobs.
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| 08/03/10 | China PMI |
| | During the last week of July, market expectations for the upcoming China PMI began to fall, somewhat dramatically. |
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| 08/02/10 | Oil Market Update |
| | Oil inventories continue to rise here in the United States; in fact, they are approaching the uncomfortably high levels of May 2009. |
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| 08/01/10 | A Good Inning! |
| | For all the negative sentiment that flavored our 4th of July bar-b-ques, I would say the month of July caught most money managers by surprise. |
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| 07/27/10 | Getting Technical |
| | On July 26, the S&P 500 Index closed above its 200 day moving average for the first time since June 21. |
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| 07/25/10 | European Bank Stress Tests |
| | Let's begin with a quick summary of the July 23rd Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) stress test for 91 European Banks. |
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| 07/19/10 | Choke Up On The Bat |
| | The S&P 500 Index aggressively declined 2.88% on Friday, July 16, quickly dropping the monthly gain for the Index to 3.315%. |
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| 07/18/10 | Major Currency Markets |
| | Remember the Dubai debt crisis? I believe most of us have forgotten by now about the Thanksgiving 2009 event that was predicted to roil the markets. |
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| 07/13/10 | Money Flow |
| | Historically, the first ten calendar of January, and “sometimes” in July as well, are a time for money managers to deploy fresh investor capital into the Equities market. |
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| 07/12/10 | Week of July 12 Earnings Overview |
| | Here we go - another round of earnings is upon us. For this reporting period, I am focused on what corporations will tell us, what guidance they will give.
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| 07/11/10 | Week of July 12 Earnings Reporting Calendar |
| | During the week of July 12, 23 companies in the S&P 500 Index will report earnings. |
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| 07/08/10 | Corporate Bonds Still In Play |
| | Corporate Bonds – 6 reasons that an investment in Corporate Bonds is still warranted. |
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| 07/07/10 | US Manufacturing – Double Dip? |
| | One of the better indicators for telegraphing price direction in the capital markets is the ISM Manufacturing Survey. |
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| 07/06/10 | Hurricanes and Housing |
| | One of the better performing sectors since the credit crisis unfolded in the fall of 2008 has been technology. |
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| 07/05/10 | Jobs, Double Dips and Obama's W
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| | Former President George W. Bush was often playfully referred to as 'W.' Ironically, President Obama might have to deal with 'W' once again. |
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| 06/29/10 | Coffee Reading Material
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| | Unfortunately my last blog 'Two Minute Warning' accurately described a classic example of 'Good News, Bad Price Action'. |
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| 06/22/10 | Two Minute Warning |
| | Believe it or not, here we are. Sound the whistle - it is time for the two minute warning for the first half of 2010.
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| 06/20/10 | YUAN Dollar Peg Decision |
| | On Saturday, June 26, G20 leaders will begin a two day summit in Toronto. |
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| 06/14/10 | Stat Check |
| | Wow, it’s already June 15! Receiving a phone call to begin preparing for our next quarterly commentary is a gentle reminder that 2010 will soon be at the halfway point. |
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| 06/10/10 | A Little Something for Everyone |
| | Generally, markets spend more time consolidating, pausing before restoring either the prevailing bearish or bullish trend. |
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| 06/03/10 | This Morning's Unemployment Report |
| | Clearly, the absence of private sector job growth in this morning’s Unemployment Report is rather troubling. |
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| 06/01/10 | Inflation? Deflation? |
| | In my last quarterly commentary I briefly discussed the critical question coming into this year - what is the path for 10 year Treasury yields? |
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| 06/01/10 | The First Week of June |
| | First, let’s touch on the equity markets coming out of May. I currently remain “invested,” having moved in late May from “underweight” back toward “market weight.” |
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| 05/25/10 | Seeking The Solution |
| | After many years contributing to business network television, I appreciate the mindset of producers. Telling the story of the markets and pointing investors in the proper direction is important. |
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| 05/24/10 | The Week Of May 24 |
| | Here it is, the final week of May. This time next weekend America pulls back the curtain on another summer season. |
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| 05/23/10 | Why Not Just Go Short? |
| | Over the past few weeks, I have had more than a few questions asking "why not just get short?" You suggest a "baseball season of frustration is upon us." |
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| 05/20/10 | Takeaways From the SALT Conference 2010 |
| | I am back from Las Vegas and looking for thanks from my fellow New Yorkers for bringing back some Vegas weather - sorry I missed that Northeast rainstorm this week.
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| 05/12/10 | Capital Markets Update |
| | Here we are happily one week removed from the 'Flash Crash' of Thursday May 6 and several days past the European Union’s 'shock and awe' defense of the euro. |
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| 05/06/10 | That was a Bad Inning |
| | In a 'Baseball Season of Frustration,' investors can certainly expect a bunch of strikeouts, caught stealing, and walks by the pitcher. Yesterday’s entire trading session was one lousy inning of baseball highlighted by some very wild pitches. |
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| 05/05/10 | Thoughts On Early May Trading |
| | I have a very reliable calculator that I am guessing is around 16 years old. As I get older, I unfortunately find myself using that calculator more and more. |
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| 05/03/10 | Deepwater Horizon Rig Crisis |
| | The events surrounding the Deepwater Horizon Rig crisis, which began on April 20, has now reached the impact point for oil prices. |
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| 05/02/10 | Greetings From 34,989 Feet |
| | Greetings from 34,989 feet above our great country. Let’s be exact - that is 34,989 feet above Omaha, Nebraska. Hello down there, Mr. Buffett. |
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| 04/28/10 | Preparing For the FOMC Meeting |
| | The Federal Open Market Committee meets Wednesday April 28, a one day event. During the credit crisis, which now feels like it didn't even occur; the FOMC added an additional day. |
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| 04/27/10 | Heart of a Champion |
| | By now, most of you know that I am a huge hockey fan. My love affair with the game was fostered during my childhood when I had the privilege of watching my favorite team, the New York Islanders, raise four Stanley Cup banners. |
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| 04/26/10 | G-20 in Case You Missed It
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| | G-20 leaders met over the weekend of April 23 in Washington D.C. – Some important takeaways. |
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| 04/20/10 | For the Oil Doubters |
| | Oil prices continue to “grind” higher despite the headwind of continued rising inventories and an OPEC consortium that, as usual, cannot adhere to their quotas. |
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| 04/19/10 | WHAT I AM WATCHING THE WEEK OF APRIL 19 |
| | Obviously, as I stated on the evening of Friday April 16, the most critical indicator for the week of April 19 might just be the reaction to the SEC / Goldman Sachs news as Asian markets open Sunday evening April 18. |
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| 04/18/10 | Goldman Sachs 24 Hours Later |
| | I believe in allowing time to pass before letting Mr. Mouth express any thought that is not internally questioned and properly reflected upon. So, 24 hours have passed, enough time for me to offer some thoughts on the SEC suing Goldman Sachs (GS) for fraud. The one thing that I keep focusing on is 'how this will impact the markets.' I will survive however it turns out for GS. Sorry, call me superficial, but that is my concern, and maybe yours as well so, let’s dig a little deeper.
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| 04/15/10 | DOW Transports vs. DOW Industrials |
| | Heading into 2010, advocates of Dow Transport outperformance were chided in a similar fashion to our Virtus friend Pete Batchelar suggesting that his Montreal Canadiens can eliminate the Washington Capitals. |
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| 04/14/10 | Treasury Yields |
| | First, let me once again state what I told the students at the University of Connecticut School of Business back in early February - the best trade out there is to take a thirty year mortgage. I still believe that; it is a generational opportunity. |
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| 04/14/10 | Energy Market Update |
| | I am done with my Fast Money oil price predictions ($90 before $60), taking my official bow and stating that $87.09 on April 6th is good enough for me - close enough to $90. |
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| 04/13/10 | Spend it even if you don’t have it! |
| | Late last year on Fast Money, I began suggesting that the “affluent consumer” was significantly contributing to, and supporting, overall consumer spending. |
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| 04/12/10 | Earnings For the Week of April 12 |
| | 'Now leading off for the Bull Market - ALCOA (AA)!' Well, not exactly Derek Jeter or even Johnnie Damon (circa 2004 Bosox), but Alcoa (AA) it is.
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| 04/11/10 | THE WEEK AHEAD |
| | Asset prices continue to slowly move higher as we begin the next earnings season. Investors need also pay attention to the Greece / ECB drama and some domestic economic events. Let's quickly highlight those events.
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| 03/25/10 | Heading into the end of March European Summit |
| | Heading into the end of March European Summit, the 16 nations that comprise the European Union have one thing on their minds - the rapidly declining value of their currency. |
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| 03/17/10 | COMMODITIES
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| | Tuesday’s FOMC statement did little to stall the bullish momentum the Commodities space has exhibited during the month of March. |
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| 03/16/10 | Spoiled Brats |
| | Here I sit one week removed from the yearly family trip to Disney, utterly missing every minute of the trip. Certainly, my kids miss the trip, in particular the relaxed, no rules environment a vacation week with Dad brings. |
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| 03/14/10 | The Quarter is coming to a close, some thoughts |
| | Wow, basically we have two weeks left in the quarter. From a market action perspective it feels like it is still January 10th. Over the next two weeks I think the market will have support underneath it. |
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| 03/09/10 | One Year Ago |
| | So, here we are, one year removed from one of the greatest generational buying opportunities in the history of our capital markets. |
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| 02/24/10 | 3 Speeds |
| | Back in December, I wrote about the correlation between a “sideways” market and the temptation to alter portfolio strategies. The 2004 and 1994 markets provide templates.
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| 02/16/10 | Under The Radar |
| | Unfortunately most of the “meat" never gets exposed to investors; they just witness “the fat". |
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| 02/07/10 | We have a suspect |
| | One of the more frustrating components of investing is when your investment plan is challenged by an aggressive sell-off in the market. |
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| 01/31/10 | Was it 10 for '10 or 5 for '10? |
| | New decade, new beginning, a global economic recovery reflected in rising capital market prices. |
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| 01/25/10 | One Man's Truck |
| | Everybody knows that Americans love trucks. We buy them in all sizes and even sport them up more after the purchase. At this time last week, not many Americans figured that one man's love of a truck in Massachusetts would initiate a series of political events that ended the week of January 18th with the capital markets in disarray. |
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| 01/18/10 | The Importance of January 21st |
| | On Thursday, January 21st earnings reports will be released for Google, Goldman Sachs, American Express, and Freeport McMoRan.
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| 01/11/10 | Follow the Yellow Brick Road
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| | Friday’s December jobs report provided a much needed reminder that the FOMC will stand by its accommodative policy for an extended period of time. For all the criticism Ben and his boys have taken this week, they have accurately assessed and addressed the stresses in the economy and the capital markets. |
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| 01/07/10 | No Quiet Markets Here |
| | The litany of predictions for 2010 all seemed to suggest tepid performance for the capital markets. I myself have suggested that volatility, as measured by the VIX, will continue its current trend lower. |
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| 01/03/10 | Here we are in 2010 |
| | Here we are in 2010 and, for all those who are preparing for dramatic changes, I posit that the sun still rose in similar fashion to 2009. |
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