The Drive Back From the Beach
Every money manager experiences what I like to call "The Conundrum Ride." You have the kids in the backseat, your wife next to you, and too much traffic in front of you. But, as you put the summer vacation behind you on your final drive of the summer, you also feel the excitement, and the pressure, about getting back to work. Your mind begins to reflect back - this time last year, the fall crisis, the winter of our discontent and the subsequent recovery. Talking about the recent summer recovery, the guilt sets in - did you spend too much time on the beach? Are you underinvested? The dilemma you now face is realized. What's your move come Tuesday September 8? Are you jumping on this "recovery express" or do you take the "Roubini road" and sell into it?
Neither may be the move, folks, although it seems the most obvious. How about some patience, about letting the crowd muddle through the end of summer transition into the fall? How about not putting those chips down on the table until the Halloween candy is gobbled up? You see, if you play too early, you may just box yourself in for the real move. I think the hedgie crowd is coming back from the beach sellers and that selling, if incorrect, could force some serious short covering, igniting the potential end of year dash for performance that occurred in 2003. Remember, I still think 2009 looks a lot like 2003 hopefully with a better World Series ending for my Yankees.