Although the calendar still needs to run out the final 10 days of 2011, for many weeks it has been obvious to most of us that the year probably ended in mid-November.
The S&P 500® Index has come under significant selling pressure this week.
The capital markets completed a headline-driven choppy week on Friday, December 9.
As I often mention, success is rather difficult to achieve in an environment absent of confidence.
Within the past 36 hours global central banks have coordinated monetary policy measures not taken since March 2009.
The month of December begins with the release of economic data on the condition of global manufacturing.
As is the American way, heading into this morning’s heavy U.S. economic data releases, a “What have you done for me lately?” mindset prevailed.
On Wednesday morning, November 23, 2011, several domestic economic data points were released.
Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 11 (as reported on November 17)
On August 2, the passage of the Budget Control Act of 2011 created the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction, otherwise known as the “Super Committee.”
Here on Long Island, the leaves on the trees have yet to fall, giving us a false sense of how close to the end of 2011 we really are.
Italian bond yields (Figures 1.1 & 1.2) have risen rather dramatically this week despite some political actions that should eventually lead to a favorable resolution for the European Union’s third largest economy, Italy.
Consistent with other recent non-recessionary economic data releases, the positive revisions in this morning’s U.S. jobs report should end the debate over whether the U.S. economy is entering another recession.
At the end of a historic October, the market was positioned to “raise the ceiling” toward the 1300 to 1325 range.
China PMI was reported at 50.4, down from last month’s 51.2 and below consensus estimates for 51.8.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported 50.8 for its Manufacturing Index, a decline from last month’s 51.6 and below consensus estimates for 52.0.
Thursday morning, October 27, global markets awoke to an equities rally fueled by the appearance of European fiscal and monetary unity.
Last week, Caterpillar CEO Doug Oberhelman’s post-earnings comments shed light on global manufacturing conditions.
Back in late August, the Boston Red Sox looked like a lock to reach the MLB playoffs – in fact, a favorite to play in the World Series.
Financial institutions, when measured in terms of their dismal year-to-date equity price performance, appear eerily similar to the summer of 2008 when cash was about to be king and the Great Recession was confirmed.
Beginning with the October 1 release of the China PMI Manufacturing report, several economic reports from China have been released over the past few weeks.
The capital markets continue to be plagued by a fundamental outlook that is as confusing and conflicted as any time in recent memory.
October’s first major economic report continues the recent trend of better-than-forecast economic data.
Counter to multiple recent analyst calls for an extremely hard landing for China’s economy, recent economic data suggests the complete opposite – a soft landing.
U.S. durable goods orders fell 0.1% in August, ahead of expectations for a decline of 0.2%.
Given the current market riot, I want all investors to keep two things in mind. First, keep it simple works best in this environment. Don’t attempt to implement any complicated strategies or analyze beyond the obvious. Second, in a time of panic, do exactly the opposite of what feels “easiest” to do. What is harder will work best
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets Tuesday and Wednesday this week for the sixth time this year. There will not be a post-meeting press conference for Chairman Bernanke on Wednesday. After this meeting, there remains two FOMC meeting in 2011 – November 2 and December 13.
In my May 4 blog “Moving Energy from Market Weight from Overweight,” I explained my reasons for the downgrade of the sector.
President Obama addressed a joint session of Congress and presented the American Jobs Act on Thursday evening.
Since March 2009, one constant throughout the recovery in the S&P 500 Index has been the secular downtrend in the U.S. Dollar Index.
China Inflation Data
As the month of September begins, one thing remains consistent with the theme of July and August: the bull market of uncertainty prevails.
One day after receiving better-than-expected global manufacturing figures,
September kicked off with the release of global manufacturing figures the first of the month.
On the morning of Wednesday, August 24, the Commerce Department released the orders for durable goods monthly report.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will deliver a highly anticipated speech from Jackson Hole, Wyoming at 10 a.m. on Friday, August 26.
On Thursday morning, August 18, the Philly Fed Index was reported at -30.7 versus consensus estimates of -2.0 to +1.5.
Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 12 (as reported on August 18):
For the remainder of August, the desired objective for the S&P 500® Index is to certify stability.
After five extremely volatile trading sessions, the S&P 500 Index (Fig 1.1) lost 1.7% for the week of August 8.
Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 5 (as reported on August 11)
Chinese policy makers initiated a monetary tightening cycle in October 2010 to slow inflationary pressures.
On Tuesday, August 9, the FOMC released its statement
Late Friday, August 5, Standard & Poor’s downgraded the U.S.A. credit rating one level to AA+.
As I often suggest, there are both social and market consequences to the actions emanating from Washington D.C.
In response to Standard and Poor’s downgrade of the U.S. long-term credit rating, let’s look at the potential consequences for the U.S. Government debt market.
The July U.S. Jobs report was released the morning of August 5. Leading up to this day, the S&P 500® Index had endured four days of intensive selling pressure, taking the Index down almost 7%.
On Tuesday, August 2, 2011, President Obama signed into law the Budget Control Act of 2011 (BCA).
Most of you have heard me suggest that the best investment strategies are usually the simplest.
Late Sunday, July 31, the National Bureau of Statistics released July’s China Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).
U.S. ISM Manufacturing for July was reported at 50.9, well below the 54.5 consensus and June’s 55.3 figure.
Since my last (July 21) blog entry, “Push-Pull Continues,” I have spent much of my time reviewing the favorable and unfavorable conditions currently limiting appreciation in the capital markets.
The S&P 500® Index continues to trade in a directionless pattern for the month of July.
There are four potential market “heroes” that could come to the rescue of the capital markets in the second half of the year and pick up where QE2 left off.
Wednesday, July 13, was certainly a volatile day for the capital markets.
Over the weekend of July 9, several monthly economic reports were released from China.
Copper prices often are an excellent indicator of global economic conditions.
The U.S. unemployment report released Friday, July 8, delivered a major disappointment to Main Street.
Manufacturing has been a supportive force throughout the capital markets’ recovery since March 2009.
The Chicago PMI Index was released at 9:45 a.m. ET today (June 30).
The capital markets are in the midst of the proverbial slump.
On Wednesday, June 22, at 12:30 p.m. ET, the Federal Open Market Committee releases its statement following the conclusion of its fourth scheduled meeting of 2011.
Global markets continue to decline in classic “risk-off” fashion.
Capital markets remain in a defensive mode with safe haven assets continuing to be the favored holdings.
In a previous blog entry, “Baseball Season of Frustration 2,” I suggested some potential “villains” and “heroes” for the ending of the current capital market drama.
OPEC members failed to agree to raise the official output quota ...
For the week ending Wednesday, June 1, holdings of net long futures contracts increased for the second consecutive week.
Recent global economic data, combined with a modest capital markets correction, have created an eerily similar environment to 2010’s Baseball Season of Frustration.
6/2/11 Initial Jobless Claims
May has thankfully come to an end. For the first time in six months, I would characterize the past month as “corrective” in nature. Commodity outflows exceeded $4 billion.
May is happily approaching the end.
Returning to New York from the SALT Conference in Las Vegas has been somewhat difficult.
Capital markets continue to soften as moderating global growth and the end of the FOMC’s $600 billion asset purchase program are being “priced in.”
The combination of strong exports and slowing imports pushed the China Trade balance in April to...
This morning’s release of the April jobs report is SURPRISING, given the numbers are not as bad as consensus estimates feared.
This week, the S&P 500® Index (Fig 1.1) is correcting much of last week’s FOMC advance.
Global currency trends continue to accurately portray the fundamentals of major global economies.
Spot oil prices, along with most major commodities, have experienced precipitous declines during the first week of May.
As we head into the month of May, much will be made of the adage “Sell in May and Go Away.”
The capital markets are preparing for a unique FOMC meeting that includes an inaugural press conference by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.
Four critical points from the April 21st Initial Jobless Claims report
Before the market opened on Monday April 18, Standard & Poor’s downgraded the U.S. long term credit rating from stable to negative.
This week, the capital markets are digesting some disappointing news which may initiate a modest market correction.
Wednesday morning, April 13, JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) kicked off the earnings season for financials.
China Trade Data (Data released Saturday evening April 9, 2011)
The week of April 11 initiates 2011’s second round of corporate earnings.
Nonfarm Payrolls increased to 216,000 from last month’s 192,000
Headline U.S. ISM Manufacturing was reported on April 1, 2011 at 61.2 vs. consensus estimates of 61.1.
Multiple concerns have been raised over the past six months regarding the fiscal health of U.S. states and the impact on the $2.9 trillion municipal bond market.
The final week of March presents several important U.S. economic data reports.
Heading into 2011, I identified energy as the sector that I expected to the lead the S&P 500 Index to another higher yearly close.
Global markets are declining in sympathy with the Nikkei 225, as that equity market has tumbled over 10% from Monday’s close.
Over the weekend at a special European Summit, the 17 heads of state agreed to measures that I expect will be favorable for the value of the euro, as well as the regional economy.
China’s import and export growth slowed in February. I believe two conditions impacted the slowdown - the Lunar New Year and tighter monetary policy.
For retail investors it is incredibly difficult to invest in individual currencies, or to speculate on potential currency appreciation or depreciation.
The S&P 500 Index continues to balance the continued strong U.S. economic data with the contagion fears in the Middle East.
Selling persists in the equities market as a direct result of rising oil prices.
The S&P 500 Index (Figure 1.1) has experienced a rather impressive rally since Labor Day 2010.
Emerging Markets Stabilization? – For the week of February 14-18, the Brazil Bovespa Index was the best performing major global equity index at +3.51%.
Much debate recently has centered around whether the world’s fastest growing major economy, China, is in the midst of a hard or soft landing.
At the end of 2010, I presented several market commentaries identifying potential 2011 opportunities.
HEADLINE POINTS: The unemployment rate (Fig 1.1) declined to 9% from 9.4%, a significant surprise versus consensus estimate for a rise to 9.5%
After the market closed on Friday January 28, I suggested that the unrest in Egypt, and that day’s troublesome market price action, placed the market in as vulnerable a position, heading into a weekend, as we had seen since early last summer.
On Wednesday, January 26, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded its first meeting for 2011.
The holiday-shortened week of January 17 was the first challenging week for investors year to date.
On Tuesday evening January 18, International Business Machines Corp (IBM) and Apple Inc. (AAPL) reported quarterly results.
Greetings from the snowy Northeast! The abundance of early winter snow reminds me of our “2009 Winter of Discontent.”
Initial Jobless Claims rose 18,000 to 409,000; consensus was 405k to 415k
One of my favorite indicators during the past 24 months has been “The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Index” – released on the first business day of each calendar month.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Virtus Investment Partners provides this communication as a matter of general information. The opinions stated herein are those of the author and not necessarily the opinions of Virtus, its affiliates or its subadvisers. Portfolio managers at Virtus make investment decisions in accordance with specific client guidelines and restrictions. As a result, client accounts may differ in strategy and composition from the information presented herein. Any facts and statistics quoted are from sources believed to be reliable, but they may be incomplete or condensed and we do not guarantee their accuracy. This communication is not an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any security, and it is not a research report. Individuals should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.