Since the first hint that the Federal Reserve would begin tapering its monthly bond buying program and long-term interest rates began to rise last May, investors have shunned all types of bonds and bond funds.
I find it valuable to pause in reacting to grand macro events such as yesterday’s long awaited FOMC asset purchase moderation announcement.
Heading into this morning’s opening, there remains only eight-and-a-half trading sessions before the books close on 2013.
Newfleet blog focuses on long-term total return history of bank loan market
Last Friday morning, December 6, the Labor Department released the November nonfarm payrolls report.
Joe Terranova blogs about strength of Europe’s manufacturing data
As the final month of 2013 begins, investors have some weekend economic data from Asia to digest: the November PMI manufacturing index from China and the November trade balance report from South Korea.
As 2013 comes to a close, both the economic and asset recovery in Europe continues to defy skeptics.
On the afternoon of Wednesday, November 20, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released the minutes from its October 29-30 meeting.
On Tuesday morning, November 19, Home Depot Inc. (HD), the largest domestic home improvement retailer, reported Q3 earnings.
The S&P 500® Index (SPX) established another new all-time of 1791.53 on Thursday, November 14. Beginning Monday, November 18, there are only 30 trading days remaining in 2013.
Strong year-to-date gains in broad-based equity indices are attracting increased media attention, now that interest in the U.S. budget and debt ceiling crises has temporarily waned.
This morning the Labor Department released the October nonfarm payrolls report. During the month of October the United States government experienced a shutdown from October 1 until October 16.
The following charts and tables are part of a capital markets presentation Joe recently gave to a group of financial advisors.
November has arrived, bringing with it the return of multiple economic data releases and an important central bank meeting in Europe.
Last Friday, October 25, the S&P 500® Index (SPX) (Figure 1) established both a new all-time closing high of 1759.77 and an intraday high of 1759.82.
Thanks to the D.C. dysfunction, the September nonfarm payroll report was released 18 days later than expected. Accordingly, the October report has been pushed back one week from Friday, November 1, to Friday, November 8.
Over the past few weeks, whether writing commentary or presenting to some of our clients, I have argued that the optimal strategy for investors was to largely ignore the D.C. dysfunction.
Markets head into Friday’s trade at historic highs and further bolstered by the overnight China Q3 GDP print of 7.8% growth, finally accelerating after Q2’s disappointing 7.5% print.
As mixed messages continue to come from the kindergarten class running D.C.’s academic institution, my attention remains focused on the messages from Q3 earnings
Bank loans proved to be very resilient during this summer’s Treasury volatility and remain a leading fixed income sector for the year, returning 3.53% through September (S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index).
Heading into Q4, some of the recent economic data points out of China have suggested that the slowdown in growth which began in Q2 2012 could reaccelerate.
Wednesday afternoon, October 9, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released the minutes from its September 18-19 meeting.
The fundamental advantages of closed-end funds’ "closed" capital structure include professional management and the ability to use leverage.
The S&P 500® Index (SPX) continued to correct last week from its all-time high of 1729.86 established on the date of the last FOMC meeting, Wednesday, September 19.
Tuesday morning, October 1, the Institute for Supply Management released its September factory index.
The S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 1701.84 on Monday, September 23, extending late last week’s weak trade with a 0.47% decline.
On Wednesday afternoon, September 18, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released its post-meeting statement absent of any asset purchase moderation.
From our multi-sector vantage point, we continue to see very large corporate bond offerings come to market that not only fill, but are oversubscribed.
As the third quarter winds down, we offer our near-term outlook on the four global essential services sectors in with the Virtus Global Dividend Fund invests.
Stores may have started displaying their Halloween specials, but for closed-end fund investors, it’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas.
For those of us travelling on the highways and local roads in recent days, it certainly appears that the school year is “officially back.” It also appears, given the considerable traffic jams, that rising gasoline prices are not dampening demand. So much for price elasticity.
Each year as the calendar approaches the month of May, many in the investment community suggest it is time to "sell equities in May and go away." However, in 2013, the optimal investment strategy aligned with "sell in May and go away" was to sell U.S. Treasuries.
On Friday morning, September 6, the Department of Labor released its August labor report. Overall, the report did not meet consensus estimates and the prior month’s previously reported numbers were revised lower.
While major U.S. equity exchanges were closed Monday in observance of the Labor Day holiday, several global manufacturing readings were released.
Late Monday, August 26, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry alerted Syria that it would be held accountable for using chemical weapons. Subsequent price action for the S&P 500® Index (SPX) (Figure 1) has reversed the market’s attempt to restore July’s bullish momentum.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF) declined 2.65% this past week and is now down 11.6% for 2013. The MXEF declined on the week despite the late week stabilization for U.S. equity markets.
Since the release of my third quarter playbook “State of Confusion” in early July, it seemed as though the Fed-driven market confusion that began in late May had given way to clarity in the early stages of the third quarter.
Thursday, August 15, presents a strong roster of economic data to give investors further insight into the potential for the FOMC to initiate tapering at its September 17-18 meeting.
It has been a turbulent summer for closed-end funds, and the investment climate is still quite unsettled. The following is our take on the current weather and forecast for changing conditions, along with where we think investors can take advantage of climate change.
As Friday August 9, 2013 second quarter calendar earnings have been reported for 447 out of the 500 S&P 500 Index (SPX) companies.
Global capital markets have experienced a strong start to the third quarter pushing many indices to new all-time highs.
On Friday morning, August 2, the July Nonfarm Payroll report was released.
The first few days of any month always seem to bring the most relevant, and market moving, economic data points. This month is certainly no exception.
Approximately 102 companies in the S&P 500® Index (SPX) have reported earnings to date.
As of last night, global capital markets had experienced roughly one month’s worth of frustrating trading activity, highlighted by the S&P 500® Index (SPX) declining from an all-time high of 1687.18 on May 22 to a trough of 1560.33 on June 24.
Spot oil prices have surged nearly $15 for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude over the past few weeks. Technically, the recent rise presents a bullish formation for...
Because there is an inverse relationship between bond prices and interest rates, the recent rise in rates has triggered a decline in bond prices, hitting closed-end funds particularly hard. In fact, closed-end funds have suffered from two forms of overreaction.
Just this past week, my Q3 playbook "State of Confusion" was released.
It’s been two weeks since Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced on June 19 that the FOMC anticipates softening its unprecedented stimulus program, and hinted at plans to scale back its $85 billion-a-month bond purchases...
This month, there might be some trepidation as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has made it clear that its intention to taper monthly bond purchases will be data dependent.
The second half of 2013 begins with overnight economic data releases from Asia and Europe.
May and June to date has been a challenging period for REITs and other income-producing asset classes, driven by concerns that the Federal Reserve might start tapering its asset purchases later this year.
In the wake of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting the S&P 500 Index (SPX) resumed the corrective behavior of the past few weeks.
On May 22, 2013, the Japanese yen (Figure 1.1) traded to 103.74, its lowest level since October 3, 2008.
This Tuesday, June 18, the FOMC holds its fourth meeting for 2013.
This morning the U.S. Labor Department released the May employment report.
As we enter the final month of the second quarter, U.S. economic data has been somewhat mixed but is still showing signs of modest improvement.
Investors often ask us for the best way to approach closed-end fund investing. Does the traditional buy-and-hold strategy provide the best results or is active trading preferable?
On Monday morning, June 3, the Institute for Supply Management reported the U.S. May ISM Manufacturing Index (Figure 1.1) at 49.0.
Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury spiked 54 basis points during the month of May. Today (June 3), the 10-year sits at approximately 2.18%.
The month of June begins with two important economic releases from Asia.
On Wednesday morning, May 29, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury touched 2.2318%, its highest level since April 2012. Keep in mind, it was the late March 2012 price action that precipitated a larger, prolonged sell-off below 2% throughout 2012 and early 2013.
In the wake of Wednesday’s FOMC minutes release, increased speculation regarding when the FOMC will begin tapering its monthly asset purchase program has taken center stage in the business media.
The S&P 500® Index (SPX) traced a rather ugly intraday reversal on Wednesday.
464 out of 500 S&P 500® Index (SPX) companies have reported earnings.
The Empire (New York) Manufacturing Index contracted in May to (-1.43) after last month’s +3.05 reading. Consensus estimates for the report were +4.00.
A key advantage of closed-end funds over open-end mutual funds is that portfolio managers are free to trade underlying holdings when they see fit.
The S&P 500® Index (SPX) traced out another new all-time high yesterday at 1632.78. Over the past five days, leadership within the index has transitioned to year-to-date laggards: industrials, materials, and energy. I would also offer that an uptick in bullish sentiment seems far more present over the past week than at the beginning of the second quarter.
Last evening, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reduced its interest rate 0.25% to a now record 2.75%. Governor Glenn Stevens joins his central bank counterparts from the United States, Europe, and Japan in adopting easier monetary policy to carefully lower the value of his domestic currency. Keep in mind, historically the RBA favors higher rates relative to other developed economies in order to attract capital inflows to offset a 30-plus year streak of account deficits. read more....
On Friday morning, May 3, the Department of Labor released the nonfarm payroll report for the month of April. Over the past few days, a disappointing construction spending figure and a weaker than forecast ADP private payroll report reduced consensus estimates for monthly job gains. However, the surprise this past Friday morning was to the upside as a much stronger than forecast report was released.
The FOMC concluded its two-day meeting this afternoon with a 2:00 p.m. statement that it will maintain its current pace of QE purchases at $85 billion per month. However,
Throughout 2013, the investment community has looked upon the world’s second largest economy, China, to present evidence of a sharp rebound in growth.
As of Friday, April 26, 2013, 270 S&P 500® (SPX) companies had reported earnings for the first calendar quarter of 2013. Last week’s 170 companies reporting completed the largest earnings week of the season.
The first three days of May present global markets with critical economic data releases and central bank meetings.
As of Friday, April 19, 102 S&P 500® (SPX) companies have reported earnings for the first calendar quarter of 2013.
Whether you have attended an investment conference at which I presented, or read my blogs and quarterly commentaries, you certainly understand my viewpoint on the allocation of gold in a portfolio.
Sunday evening, April 14, 2013, first quarter GDP for China (Fig 1.1) was reported at 7.7%, below consensus estimates for 8% growth and the 7.9% reported for the fourth quarter of 2012.
When investors think closed-end funds, the word discount often comes to mind.
The utilities sector continues to outperform all major U.S. equity indices, as well as the majority of its sector peers except health care and consumer staples.
The Labor Department released its March payroll data this past Friday. Let’s take a look at the data…
The second quarter begins today with much caution for a potentially similar market and economic slowdown experienced in each of the prior three years during Q2.
The late December reintroduction of the global carry trade, with the Japanese yen assuming the funding currency role, remains one of the strongest tailwinds for the current S&P 500® Index (SPX) appreciation.
Today and tomorrow, March 19-20, the FOMC begins a two-day meeting.
On Thursday, March 14, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims figures (Figures 1.1 & Fig 1.2) were reported as follows
Friday morning, March 8, 2013, the Department of Labor released the February jobs report. Let’s take a look…
Part 1 of our special two-part series presented common misconceptions about investing in closed-end funds. In Part 2, we dig a little deeper, testing your knowledge about some of the choices frequently facing closed-end fund shareholders that may be unfamiliar, even confusing.
On Tuesday, March 5, 2013, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) (Figure 1.1) traded to an all-time intraday high of 14,286.37.
Global real estate delivered healthy total returns in 2012 relative to global equities.
On Friday morning, March 1, 2013, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (Figure 1.1) for February activity was reported at 54.2.
The emerging markets (“EM”) debt asset class is an approximately $2.5 trillion market – twice the size that it was in 2008, and twice the size of the U.S. high yield market today.
The China Purchasing Managers’ Index (Figure 1.1) for February recorded a 50.1, below last month’s 50.4 and consensus estimates for 50.5.
Joe Terranova March 2013 Economic Calendar
Last Wednesday, February 20, the S&P 500® Index (SPX) traced out an intraday reversal lower (Figure 1.1) that ever so faintly rang the “pause in appreciation” bell.
As of the close of business Friday February 22, 2013 here are some meaningful performance and earnings tables.
The S&P 500® Index (SPX) traded down (-1.24%) to close at 1511.95 on Wednesday, February 20, 2013.
The most obvious observation for any money manager currently is the possibility for an S&P 500® Index (SPX) correction.
Not a day passes that the counter argument to the current S&P 500® Index (SPX) rally isn’t presented.
This morning, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi acknowledged exactly what I have recently grown concerned over, sharp euro currency appreciation.
Three weeks of Q4 2012 earnings have now been recorded.
Over the past few days, it seems the conversation is intensifying on whether the FOMC will shift monetary policy faster than previously expected.
Tomorrow’s first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of 2013 will conclude with an afternoon statement release.
The second week of the earnings season is set to close out. Below is the reported EPS and revenue growth by sector as well as....
The greatest challenge to investors right now is to remain committed to a portfolio strategy that is working well year to date. Unfortunately...
Yesterday, the Energy Information Administration reported that stockpiles (Figure 1.1) of domestic natural gas fell 148 billion cubic feet to 3.168 trillion.
Over the past month, I have often stated that it works in favor of further S&P 500® Index (SPX) (Figure 1.1) appreciation to...
Overnight markets have a strong bid, potentially positioning the S&P 500® Index (SPX) to challenge the current high for the year from January 4 at 1467.94. The catalyst is the China...
Pessimists generally flip the calendar into January with trepidation.
This Tuesday, January 8, earnings results from the calendar fourth quarter of 2012 will begin to be reported.
Several dominant trends for the closed-end fund industry in 2012 are expected to continue into 2013
In our view, interest rate risk deserves as much attention as credit risk when investing in fixed income markets. Investor demand for yield and, in the case of investment grade corporate bonds and Treasuries, “safety” has driven bond prices to all-time highs and yields to corresponding lows.
As expected, D.C. policy makers passed legislation to avoid a fiscal drag of $600 billion due to the expiring Bush era tax cuts and pending automatic spending cuts.
n preparation for the markets’ opening in 2013, below is a summary and charts of 2012 performance for select world equity indices, treasuries, currencies, commodities, and sector ETFs.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Virtus Investment Partners provides this communication as a matter of general information. The opinions stated herein are those of the author and not necessarily the opinions of Virtus, its affiliates or its subadvisers. Portfolio managers at Virtus make investment decisions in accordance with specific client guidelines and restrictions. As a result, client accounts may differ in strategy and composition from the information presented herein. Any facts and statistics quoted are from sources believed to be reliable, but they may be incomplete or condensed and we do not guarantee their accuracy. This communication is not an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any security, and it is not a research report. Individuals should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.