Financial Professionals

Market Insights

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Useful Capital Markets Charts

11/07/2013

The following charts and tables are part of a capital markets presentation Joe recently gave to a group of financial advisors. They are provided here as a useful reference for those who heard the presentation, as well as for market followers who may be interested in this timely information.

FIRST, MANAGE THE RISK

S&P 500® Index (SPX), November 2012 to November 2013

Source: Bloomberg

 

  • 2013 series of five higher low/modest corrections
  • No 2013 correction greater than 8%
  • Near-term point of reference: 1729.86, September 19 high
  • October 9 low: 1646.47
  • 200-day moving average: 1626.54

CBOE SPX Volatility Index (VIX), 2011 TO 2013

Source: Bloomberg

FIRST MANAGE THE RISK

SPX vs. Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index 2000



Source: Bloomberg

FIRST MANAGE THE RISK

SPX vs. Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index, Fall/Winter 2008/2009



Source: Bloomberg

BULL OR SUPER BULL?

  • Average bull market since 1932 = 3.8 years
  • 16 bull markets since 1932 greater than today’s 4-1/2 year run
    • 1949, 1974, 1982, 1990, 2002
    • Is this a super bull?
      • 1990 = 9.5 years
      • 1949 = 7.1 years
      • 1974 = 6.2 years
      • Is this just a bull?

Current SPX Earnings Season, as of Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Sector

Reported

Yet to Report

EPS Growth

Sales Growth

Overall SPX

423

75

3.86%

2.71%

Consumer Discretionary

52

30

11.08%

7.16%

Materials

31

0

9.10%

2.32%

Utilities

27

4

3.94%

3.10%

Technology

56

10

6.86%

3.70%

Telecom

4

2

5.40%

3.26%

Industrials

56

7

7.25%

1.66%

Consumer Staples

31

9

3.47%

2.25%

Health Care

49

5

1.01%

6.02%

Financials

79

2

6.42%

1.25%

Energy

38

6

-9.73%

-0.84%

Source: Bloomberg

Q4 PLAYBOOK: “TWO PLUS TWO EQUAL FOUR?” – UNITED STATES

SPX Profit Margin Last Five Quarters

Source: Bloomberg

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index, November 2012 to November 2013

Source: Bloomberg

Q4 PLAYBOOK: “TWO PLUS TWO EQUAL FOUR?” – UNITED STATES

Chicago PMI, November 2010 to November 2013

Source: Bloomberg

U.S. Personal Consumption, November 2012 to November 2013 – $11.528bn

Source: Bloomberg

Q4 PLAYBOOK: “TWO PLUS TWO EQUAL FOUR?” – UNITED STATES

U.S. Existing Home Inventory November 2004 to November 2013

Source: Bloomberg

U.S. Auto Sales November 2003 to November 2013

Source: Bloomberg

Q4 PLAYBOOK: “TWO PLUS TWO EQUAL FOUR?” – FOMC TAPER/TREASURIES

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield, November 2012 to November 2013

Source: Bloomberg

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Prior Four Years – Average 2.55%

Source: Bloomberg

Q4 PLAYBOOK: “TWO PLUS TWO EQUAL FOUR?” – FOMC TAPER / EMERGING MARKETS

MXEF Emerging Markets Index, July 2013 to November 2013

Source: Bloomberg

Indian Rupee, November 2012 to November 2013

Source: Bloomberg

Q4 PLAYBOOK: “TWO PLUS TWO EQUAL FOUR?” – CHINA

China Manufacturing, November 2012 to November 2013

Source: Bloomberg

China GDP, 2011 to Present

Source: Bloomberg

Q4 PLAYBOOK: “TWO PLUS TWO EQUAL FOUR?” – EUROPE

Eurocurrency, November 2012 to November 2013

Source: Bloomberg

Spain 10-Year Yield, July 2012 to November 2013

Source: Bloomberg

Q4 PLAYBOOK: “TWO PLUS TWO EQUAL FOUR?” – EUROPE

Italy 10-Year Yield, July 2012 to November 2013

Source: Bloomberg

Eurozone PMI Manufacturing, June 2012 to November 2013

Source: Bloomberg

Q4 PLAYBOOK: “TWO PLUS TWO EQUAL FOUR?” – JAPAN

Japanese Nikkei, November 2012 to November 2013

Source: Bloomberg

Japanese Yen, September 2012 to November 2013

Source: Bloomberg

INVESTMENT THEMES

  • Precious Metals Allocation Should Be….?
  • Spot Oil Price Weakness
  • Municipal Bonds
  • Energy Equities Shale
  • U.S. Exposed Emerging Markets
  • Small Caps
  • Momentum Gains Underscore Investor Absence
  • Europe/Germany-U.K.
  • Japanese Equities

Virtus Investment Partners provides this communication as a matter of general information. The opinions stated herein are those of the author and not necessarily the opinions of Virtus, its affiliates or its subadvisers. Portfolio managers at Virtus make investment decisions in accordance with specific client guidelines and restrictions. As a result, client accounts may differ in strategy and composition from the information presented herein. Any facts and statistics quoted are from sources believed to be reliable, but they may be incomplete or condensed and we do not guarantee their accuracy. This communication is not an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any security, and it is not a research report. Individuals should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.