Financial Professionals

Market Insights

U.S. Economy Mid-Year Glance

06/27/2014

With the calendar set to turn into the second half of 2014, let’s take a statistical snapshot of the critical economic data points for the United States.

LABOR

 

January

February

March

April

May

June

Unemployment Rate

6.7%

6.6%

6.7%

6.7%

6.3%

6.3%

Nonfarm Payrolls

84,000

144,000

222,000

203,000

282,000

217,000

Private Payrolls

86,000

166,000

201,000

200,000

270,000

216,000

Avg. Hourly Earnings YoY

1.9%

2.0%

2.1%

2.1%

2.0%

2.1%

Initial Jobless Claims 4-week Moving Avg

334,000

337,000

321,000

320,000

310,000

314,000

Labor Force Participation Rate

63.6%

63.3%

63.5%

63.2%

63.2%

62.8%

Source: Bloomberg

 

MANUFACTURING

 

January

February

March

April

May

June

ISM

56.5

51.3

53.2

53.7

54.9

55.4

Philly Fed

9.40

-6.3

9.00

16.6

15.4

17.8

Construction Spending YoY

5.2%

7.1%

9.2%

8.8%

9.5%

8.6%

Chicago PMI

60.8

59.6

59.8

55.9

63.0

65.5

Industrial Production YoY

3.25%

3.01%

3.44%

3.84%

3.76%

4.27%

Capacity Utilization

78.5

78.1%

78.8%

79.3%

78.9%

79.1%

Source: Bloomberg

 

INFLATION

 

January

February

March

April

May

June

CPI

1.5%

1.6%

1.1%

1.5%

2.0%

2.1%

Core CPI

1.7%

1.6%

1.6%

1.7%

1.8%

2.0%

Source: Bloomberg

 

HOUSING

 

December

January

February

March

April

May

S&P/Case- Shiller Home Price YoY

13.7%

13.3%

13.1%

12.8%

12.3%

10.8%

New Home Sales

442,000

457,000

432,000

410,000

425,000

504,000

Existing Home Sales

4.87M

4.62M

4.60M

4.59M

4.66M

4.89M

Housing Starts

1034K

897K

928K

950K

1071K

1001K

Source: Bloomberg

 

CAPITAL MARKETS

January 31

February 28

March 31

April 30

May 30

June 27

US 10-Year Yield

2.64%

2.65%

2.72%

2.65%

2.48%

2.52%

US Dollar Index

81.311

79.691

80.10

79.47

80.37

80.10

S&P 500® Index

1782.59

1859.45

1872.34

1883.95

1923.57

1957.22

Source: Bloomberg

 

OTHER KEY ECONOMIC METRICS

 

January

February

March

April

May

June

Consumer Confidence

79.4

78.3

83.8

81.7

82.2

85.2

NFIB Small Business Optimism

93.9

94.1

91.4

93.4

95.2

96.6

Auto Sales

15.25M

15.82M

15.21M

15.30M

16.33M

16.70M

ISM Services

53.0

54.0

51.6

53.1

55.2

56.3

Trade Balance

$-36.97B

$-36.55B

$-42.26B

$-37.39B

$-44.18B

$-47.2B

Retail Sales MoM

-0.1%

0.9%

0.9%

1.5%

0.5%

0.3%

Federal Budget Deficit as % of GDP

-3.8%

-3.6%

-3.3%

-3.3%

-3.3%

-2.9%

Conference Board LEI

0.1%

-0.1%

0.5%

1.0%

0.3%

0.5%

Source: Bloomberg

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Virtus Investment Partners provides this communication as a matter of general information. The opinions stated herein are those of the author and not necessarily the opinions of Virtus, its affiliates or its subadvisers. Portfolio managers at Virtus make investment decisions in accordance with specific client guidelines and restrictions. As a result, client accounts may differ in strategy and composition from the information presented herein. Any facts and statistics quoted are from sources believed to be reliable, but they may be incomplete or condensed and we do not guarantee their accuracy. This communication is not an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any security, and it is not a research report. Individuals should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.