Week of September 28th
Tuesday September 29th
S&P / Case-Shiller Home Price Index 9am Is the "freefall" in home prices nationwide truly over? We will gain further evidence Tuesday morning @ 9am eastern. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index gained 2.9 percent in the second quarter from the previous three months, the first increase since 2006. For this month, analysts are expecting the year-on-year decline in home prices to be 14.2%. That is an improvement over last month's -15.44%.
Wednesday September 30
MBA Mortgage Apps. 7am
ADP Employment Change 8:15am
GDP QoQ (Annualized) 8:30am
Personal Consumption 8:30am
GDP Price Index 8:30am
Core PCE QoQ 8:30am
Chicago PMI 10am
DOE Oil Inventories 10:30am
Wednesday is interesting; a litany of economic data is coming out. Take your pick on the relevance of each report. It really will depend upon the market's mood that morning.
For me, The Chicago Purchasing Manager Index will be the highlight. Last Friday's Durable Goods report was confusing. The overwhelming strength in the recent ISM releases was not validated in the Durable Goods report. Let's see what the Chicago PMI shows - is the industrial strength and business activity recovery really there?
Also, last week's Oil inventory report precipitated a sharp decline in Oil prices below $70. The question becomes was that a "one off" or will there be a second consecutive week of Oil inventory builds? Understand that when forecasting the weekly Oil stats a coin flip gives you better odds.
Thursday October 1
PCE Deflator & Core 8:30am
ISM Manufacturing 10am
Pending Home Sales 10am
Domestic Vehicle Sales Generally Early Afternoon
Thursday morning brings the first trading day for the month of October. Generally, the first trading day sets the tone for the remainder of the month. Will money managers be allocating capital into the equity market on Thursday? The answer to that question could provide insight toward October's market direction.
Wednesday's Chicago PMI is critical. However, Thursday's ISM is the grand daddy! We have witnessed a steady improvement from December's trough. Last month (52.9) was the first monthly expansion, with the Index above 50, since January 2008. Not only do we need to maintain the gains north of 50, but we need a higher number than last month. Analysts are looking for 54. Let's hope we blow that number away - that would be a great catalyst to restart the market rally toward 10,000.
Domestic Vehicle Sales will be a brutal number. Absent will be the positive effect from Cash for Clunkers. Let's hope there is nothing but upside then and the market responds favorably. Last month, domestic auto sales came in at an annual rate of 10.20 million. This month analysts are looking for 7 to 7.5 million.
Friday October 2
Last month, the Unemployment rate rose to 9.7%, which was the headline grabber for the evening news. This month, the evening news reports will get some more headlines as the rate is expected to climb to 9.8%. We are getting awfully close to 10%. We lost 216,000 jobs in last month's report. Analysts expect Friday's report to show a loss of 180,000 jobs.