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Is 2010 = 2004

11/20/2009
As we move closer to the end of 2009, the dramatic recovery in the capital markets continues to present itself in similar fashion to the capital markets recovery in 2003. In addition to the strikingly similar price action, the seasonal peaks and troughs within '03 and '09 again are rather similar.

Let's take a look at 2003…


Source: Bloomberg

…and 2009 Year-to-Date


Source: Bloomberg

So, does 2004 = 2010?

And if it does, we will see:

  1. An extension of this year's rally into Q1 2010
  2. An "anniversary" top in early March
  3. A low volatility, sideways struggle from March into the fall as critical election debates rage - regulation, taxes, health care
  4. A relief rally as "checks and balances" are voted back in D.C.



Source: Bloomberg

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