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Here we are in 2010

01/03/2010
Here we are in 2010 and, for all those who are preparing for dramatic changes, I posit that the sun still rose in similar fashion to 2009. Ironically enough, the first relevant data point for the market comes from China. In the early hours of January 1, the China PMI (manufacturing) experienced its best expansion since April 2004. Not surprising since China was the global economic stabilizing force in Q1 2009 and will provide support to the 2009 "comfort assets" - commodities and natural resources. One comfort asset is Oil. Expect bulls to remain in control as index money floods the markets in the early days of 2010. The true Santa Claus rally (December 23 - January 6) over the past decade has been in the Oil market. So, it just might be a seamless transition into 2010. Further evidence appears domestically with Monday January 4's ISM and, of course, Friday's Unemployment report.

ISM


Source: Bloomberg

Unemployment

Source: Bloomberg

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