October 8th Jobs Report
- Overall employment fell by 95,000 jobs
- Jobless rate held at 9.6%
- The critical component of the report - Private Sector Jobs - increased by 64,000
- The underemployment rate rose significantly from 16.7% to 17.1%
- The Street was expecting private sector job growth of +75,000. Clearly, today's report is disappointing.
- The Jobless Rate has now remained above 9.5% for 14 consecutive months, the longest stretch since 1948.
- The Labor Department's preliminary estimate for the employment revision report suggests a loss of 366,000 more jobs than previously reported in the 12 months ending March 2010.
This report will have significant impact on the two critical events of November 2.
- First, the report will greatly impact voter decisions in the November 2nd Midterm elections.
- Second, the multiple negative components of today's report will motivate the FOMC to expand its balance sheet more than previously forecast. I believe the market expectation for that expansion was $500 billion. I now raise the estimate to $750 billion to $1 trillion.