Financial Professionals


October 8th Jobs Report


  1. Overall employment fell by 95,000 jobs
  2. Jobless rate held at 9.6%
  3. The critical component of the report - Private Sector Jobs - increased by 64,000
  4. The underemployment rate rose significantly from 16.7% to 17.1%

  • The Street was expecting private sector job growth of +75,000.  Clearly, today's report is disappointing.
  • The Jobless Rate has now remained above 9.5% for 14 consecutive months, the longest stretch since 1948.
  • The Labor Department's preliminary estimate for the employment revision report suggests a loss of 366,000 more jobs than previously reported in the 12 months ending March 2010.

This report will have significant impact on the two critical events of November 2.

  • First, the report will greatly impact voter decisions in the November 2nd Midterm elections.
  • Second, the multiple negative components of today's report will motivate the FOMC to expand its balance sheet more than previously forecast. I believe the market expectation for that expansion was $500 billion.  I now raise the estimate to $750 billion to $1 trillion.

    Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

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