Financial Professionals


China PMI & U.S. ISM


China PMI

  1. China's October PMI rose to 54.7 from 53.8; the consensus estimate was 53.7
  2. This month's reading is the highest since the month of April's 55.7 was reported on April 30
  3. New Orders increased from 56.3 to 58.2
  4. The Output Index increased from 56.4 to 57.1
  5. The Export Order Index declined from 52.8 to 52.6


  1. The Institute for Supply Management factory index unexpectedly rose to 56.9 from 54.4, beating the consensus estimate of 53.5
  2. The critical "New Orders to Inventory" gap improved from minus 4.5 to plus 5.0
  3. New Orders rose from 51.1 to 58.9
  4. The Production Index rose from 56.5 to 62.7
  5. The Employment Gauge rose from 56.5 to 57.7
  6. The Inventory Index fell from 55.6 to 53.9, which alleviates some fear regarding inventories building


Excellent surprises in both the China PMI and U.S. ISM.  The ISM New Orders to Inventory, in particular, supports my belief that the odds for a double dip recession are less than 10%; in fact, today's reports suggests the odds are closer to 5%. There is nothing within these reports to suggest a reversal in the September / October risk asset appreciation.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

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