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Initial Jobless Claims

01/05/2011
  1. Initial Jobless Claims rose 18,000 to 409,000; consensus was 405k to 415k
  2. The four week moving average fell to 410,800 from 414,300
  3. Last week's two year low of 388,000 was revised higher to 391,000
  4. The unemployment rate for those eligible for benefits remained at 3.3%

COMMENTARY:
The recently improving trend in weekly jobless claims, as well as this week's robust ADP report, create high expectations for tomorrow's unemployment monthly report. 
Estimates for tomorrow's report are:
Unemployment Rate to decline from 9.8% to 9.7%
Private Sectors Jobs to increase 180,000. Last month's figure was 50,000. 
Headline figure to increase 150,000. Last month's figure was 39,000.

VALIDATION OF A POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENT IN DEPRESSED LABOR CONDITIONS AWAITS.

Jobless Claims 4 week Moving Average  January 2008 - January 2011

Source: Bloomberg

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