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6/2 Jobless Claims and . . .

06/01/2011

6/2/11 Initial Jobless Claims

  • Jobless claims fell 6,000 to 422,000 last week, slightly less than consensus estimates of 10,000 to 15,000.
  • Prior week's figure was revised higher, from 424,000 to 428,000.
  • Four-week moving average fell, from 439,500 to 425,500

There is not much within today's report to make an accurate bearish or bullish argument for tomorrow's monthly jobs report. Yesterday's horrible ADP private sector jobs report still resonates the loudest within the capital markets. On the back of that, ADP fiasco estimates and expectations for tomorrow's jobs report* have revised significantly lower. Maybe that's a good thing for tomorrow's post unemployment report price action. The bad news is already priced in; a positive surprise is not.
 
*6/3/11 Unemployment Report (Consensus Estimates)
Headline number:          + 100,000 to 125,000
Private jobs;                       + 115,000 to 140,000
Unemployment rate:     down .1% (8.9%) to unchanged (9.0%)
 
Initial Jobless Claims, 6/4/10 to 6/2/11

Source: Bloomberg
 
Initial Jobless Claims: 4-week moving average, 6/4/10 to 6/2/11

Source: Bloomberg
 
ISM Non-Manufacturing (to be released Friday, 6/3/11, 10 a.m. EST)
Last Month:  52.8             6/3/11 Estimate:  54.0   
 
I view tomorrow's ISM Non-Manufacturing figure as relevant to the conversation as to just how much the slowdown in GDP will be. Please watch. I will for sure. . . .
 
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, June 2005 - Present
 
Source: Bloomberg

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