U.S. Jobs Reports
Over the next few months, significant improvement in U.S. jobs has the potential to surprise economists and provide a powerful catalyst for risk assets. Therefore, I advise investors to intently monitor weekly Initial Jobless Claims figures and the ADP report as the calendar turns toward 2012.
Much work is needed to reverse the multi-year negative employment outlook. Building positive momentum from this morning’s report over the next few months would be a much needed start.
• October Nonfarm Payrolls rose 80,000, below +95,000 consensus estimates.
• October Private Payrolls rose 104,000, below +125,000 consensus estimates.
• Unemployment Rate fell to 9.0% from 9.1%.
• Underemployment Rate fell to 16.2% from 16.5%.
• October Manufacturing Payrolls rose 5,000, ahead of +2,000 consensus estimates.
o The first increase in Manufacturing jobs in three months.
• Average Hourly Earnings month on month rose 0.2%, ahead of consensus estimates of +0.1%.
• Average weekly hours remained unchanged at 34.3.
• September Nonfarm Payrolls were revised higher to +158,000 from +103,000.
• September Private Payrolls were revised higher to +191,000 from +137,000.
Private Sector Job Growth, November 2007 To November 2011