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U.S. Jobs Reports

11/04/2011
Consistent with other recent non-recessionary economic data releases, the positive revisions in this morning’s U.S. jobs report should end the debate over whether the U.S. economy is entering another recession.
 
Over the next few months, significant improvement in U.S. jobs has the potential to surprise economists and provide a powerful catalyst for risk assets. Therefore, I advise investors to intently monitor weekly Initial Jobless Claims figures and the ADP report as the calendar turns toward 2012.
 
Much work is needed to reverse the multi-year negative employment outlook. Building positive momentum from this morning’s report over the next few months would be a much needed start.   
 
•         October Nonfarm Payrolls rose 80,000, below +95,000 consensus estimates.
•         October Private Payrolls rose 104,000, below +125,000 consensus estimates.
•         Unemployment Rate fell to 9.0% from 9.1%.
•         Underemployment Rate fell to 16.2% from 16.5%.
•         October Manufacturing Payrolls rose 5,000, ahead of +2,000 consensus estimates.
                 o   The first increase in Manufacturing jobs in three months.
•         Average Hourly Earnings month on month rose 0.2%, ahead of consensus estimates of +0.1%.
•         Average weekly hours remained unchanged at 34.3.
 
POSITIVE REVISIONS
•         September Nonfarm Payrolls were revised higher to +158,000 from +103,000.
•         September Private Payrolls were revised higher to +191,000 from +137,000.
 
 
Private Sector Job Growth, November 2007 To November 2011

Source:  Bloomberg

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