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Global PMIs (Manufacturing)

12/01/2011

The month of December begins with the release of economic data on the condition of global manufacturing.
 
Last month’s European PMI data presented an ominous picture and cautioned that a recession is likely unfolding within Europe. Not much has changed with this morning’s release; manufacturing in Europe is uncomfortably weak. However, the avoidance of further significant deterioration, combined with yesterday’s coordinated central bank efforts, will be enough not to foster risky asset-selling pressure.
 
Chinese PMI continued its recent moderation trend, which actually should equal a positive market consequence. The People’s Bank of China will view the weakness as the motivation to begin a monetary easing cycle. Monetary easing within China will be one of my 2012 tailwinds
 
Let’s take a look at the PMI numbers for select major economies:
 
•         Italy – 44.0 versus 42.8 consensus and 43.3 last month
•         Germany – 47.9 versus 47.9 consensus and 47.9 last month
•         China – 49.0 versus 49.8 consensus and 50.4 last month
•         France – 47.3 versus 47.6 consensus and 47.6 last month
•         Spain – 43.8 versus 43.5 consensus and 43.9 last month
 
Italy PMI, 2009 to present

Source: Bloomberg
 
 
Germany PMI, 2009 to present

Source: Bloomberg
 
 
China PMI, 2009 to presen

Source: Bloomberg
 
France PMI, 2009 to present

Source: Bloomberg

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