Global PMIs (Manufacturing)
The month of December begins with the release of economic data on the condition of global manufacturing.
Last month’s European PMI data presented an ominous picture and cautioned that a recession is likely unfolding within Europe. Not much has changed with this morning’s release; manufacturing in Europe is uncomfortably weak. However, the avoidance of further significant deterioration, combined with yesterday’s coordinated central bank efforts, will be enough not to foster risky asset-selling pressure.
Chinese PMI continued its recent moderation trend, which actually should equal a positive market consequence. The People’s Bank of China will view the weakness as the motivation to begin a monetary easing cycle. Monetary easing within China will be one of my 2012 tailwinds
Let’s take a look at the PMI numbers for select major economies:
• Italy – 44.0 versus 42.8 consensus and 43.3 last month
• Germany – 47.9 versus 47.9 consensus and 47.9 last month
• China – 49.0 versus 49.8 consensus and 50.4 last month
• France – 47.3 versus 47.6 consensus and 47.6 last month
• Spain – 43.8 versus 43.5 consensus and 43.9 last month
Italy PMI, 2009 to present
Germany PMI, 2009 to present
China PMI, 2009 to presen
France PMI, 2009 to present