Financial Professionals


Retail Same Store Sales


Consistent with my expectation that the consumer discretionary sector (Figure 1.1) will continue to provide favorable opportunities for investors, the February Same Store Sales report recorded a +6.7% (Fig 1.2).
Given the sharp rise in oil prices in February (Figure 1.3), retail’s strength must be highlighted and is the catalyst for Thursday’s market strength.
Total Store Sales rose 8.1%, the highest reading reported since last July. Warmer weather, improving domestic labor conditions, and a rising stock market all continue to support the retail sector. High-end consumers, in particular, have their wallets open and credit cards moving. That said, the outperformance relative to expectations is broad based and in defiance of rising gas prices.  
•   Apparel rose 6.6%
•   Department stores rose 3.8%
•   Discounters rose 7.5%
-  Costco          +8.0%
-   Gap             +4.0%
-  Saks             +6.6%
-  Limited          +8.0%
-  Nordstrom      +10.2%
-  Target            +7.0%
-  TJX                +9.0%
Figure 1.1 XLY Consumer Discretionary ETF, July 1, 2011 to Present

Source: Bloomberg
Figure 1.2 Same Store Sales March 31, 2008 to Present

Source: Bloomberg
Figure 1.3 Oil Prices Year To Date

Source: Bloomberg

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Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

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