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Initial Jobless Claims

06/21/2012

This morning’s weekly Initial Jobless Claims failed to lift any expectations for the upcoming July 6 U.S. Jobs report. I continue to encourage investors to watch the weekly Initial Jobless Claim figures closely ahead of that July 6 report. There will be two more Initial Jobless Claims reports prior to July 6 – on Thursday, June 28, and Thursday, July 5. The trend over the past month is consistent with the domestic slowdown first headlined with the Friday, April 6, monthly U.S. Jobs report.  Finally, this week’s Initial Jobless Claims report includes a time period that will be calculated within the overall survey the Labor Department will use for its July 6 report.
 
Let’s look at the numbers…
 
•   Last week’s figure was revised higher from 386,000 to 389,000
•   This week’s figure was 387,000, worse than the estimate for 383,000
•   The 4-week moving average rose to 386,250, the highest since December 3, 2011 (Figure 1.1)
•   Last week’s continuing claims figure was revised higher from 3,278,000 to 3,299,000
•   This week’s continuing claims figure was also 3,299,000
•   Only nine states reported better labor conditions via a drop in weekly claims
 
Initial Jobless Claims 4-Week Moving Average, December 2, 2011 to June 15, 2012

Source: Bloomberg

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