Financial Professionals

Market Insights


Joe Terranova
Are You Formulating Your 2011 Strategy?

First and foremost, Happy Holidays to all! Thank you for your readership throughout 2010; I promise that in 2011 my continued focus will be on providing quality blog content.

Joe Terranova
December Unemployment Report

Usually, in the minutes following a monthly Unemployment report, I quickly send out a blog with my commentary and market strategy.

Joe Terranova
Technicals for U.S. Dollar and Euro Currency

Over the past several days, I have received numerous requests to identify how deep the current selloff in the euro could be.

Joe Terranova
Assessing European Debt Concerns

Once again, concerns emanating from the euro zone are front and center for investors.

Joe Terranova
Sideways is the New Up

The S&P 500 Index closed on Wednesday, November 24 @ 1198.35, incrementally higher from the Wednesday, November 3rd closing price of 1197.96.

Joe Terranova
Tuesdays are Tough!

Thankfully, the bell has rung and ended a rather difficult session for Tuesday, November 16.

Joe Terranova
First In, Last Out

I am back from an enjoyable few days in the wonderful state of California. The dynamics of California are so intriguing with its troublesome economy, teetering on the brink of oblivion, vilified in the media on a regular basis for its missteps.

Joe Terranova
Temporary Election Tailwinds

The historic election of 2010 has passed with the Republicans picking up 6 U.S. Senate seats to gain on the still Democratic majority of 53 to 47 in the Senate.

Joe Terranova
November Unemployment Report

Overall employment rose by 151,000 jobs

Joe Terranova
Emerging Markets Capital Flows Will Continue

The Central Banks of India and Australia both moved interest rates higher ahead of the U.S. FOMC meeting.

Joe Terranova
61 days remain in 2010

Let’s look at the components of the capital markets, see where we stand, and where they could be headed.

Joe Terranova
Cheat Sheet for the Week of November 1st

Monday November 1 - ISM. October 54.4; November Consensus Range 53.0 to 53.8. The market expects further deterioration in the ISM.

Joe Terranova
China PMI & U.S. ISM

China PMI: 1. China’s October PMI rose to 54.7 from 53.8; the consensus estimate was 53.7

Joe Terranova
G-20 Matters

In September, we introduced an economic calendar on the Virtus website. As I craft that calendar each month, I generally identify one theme that shapes the monthly events.

Joe Terranova
Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims declined 23,000 to 452,000; consensus was 450k to 460k

Joe Terranova
The Double Dip in Pessimism

Looking back at August, there is no doubt that we experienced a double dip in pessimism.

Joe Terranova
Technically Speaking

An overuse of any particular market tool will lead to underperformance, that is historically proven.

Joe Terranova
The IMF & Inflation

The week of October 11 begins with the Columbus Day Holiday on Monday. Clearly, one of my all-time favorite trading days was Columbus Day 2008, when the S&P 500 Index surged from 899.22 to 1003.35.

Joe Terranova
Q3 Earnings Cheat Sheet

The most active earnings week is October 25 when 35% of S&P 500 Index companies report

Joe Terranova
October 8th Jobs Report

Overall employment fell by 95,000 jobs.

Joe Terranova
The Week Ahead (October 4) – U.S. Dollar

Take a $100 bill out of your wallet and stare at it closely – it looks the same as it always did. Well, not really, it may look the same but its purchasing power continues to diminish.

Joe Terranova
Post ISM Commentary & US Jobs Report Preview

The Friday October 1st ISM release provided investors with further evidence that FOMC will decide to expand the size of its balance sheet from $2 trillion at the two day November FOMC meeting.

Joe Terranova
China PMI

1. China’s September PMI rose from 51.7 to 53.8, above the 52.5 consensus

Joe Terranova
ISM Preview

The week ahead closes September. Since the credit crisis began in the 3rd Quarter of 2008, the first business day of each calendar month has been a highly anticipated day for me.

Joe Terranova
Post FOMC / Town Hall Thoughts

Velma Hart stole the show during Monday’s town hall on CNBC with a brilliant question, “Is this my new reality?”

Joe Terranova
FOMC Cheat Sheet

On Tuesday, September 21, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold its sixth meeting for 2010.

Joe Terranova
Initial Jobless Claims

1. Initial Jobless Claims “surprisingly” declined 3,000 to 450,000, the lowest level in two months

Joe Terranova
Chinese Economic Data Results

1. Trade Data (Exports and Imports) - % change YOY from July to August

Joe Terranova

Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) continue to outperform the S&P 500 Index.

Joe Terranova
Pending China Economic Data

Economic globalization - a world with transparent boundaries!

Joe Terranova
The Bubble of Pessimism Deflates

Fear rose during the month of August as deflationary economic signals weighed on equity prices. Investors aggressively purchased safe haven assets, U.S. Treasuries, in particular.

Joe Terranova
Treasury Auction Schedule Week of September 6 – (Yields as of 9/3/10 close)

Treasury Auction Schedule Week of September 6

Joe Terranova
The Calendar for September

As we head into September, I’ve developed a calendar of key economic indicators and meaningful market events that I’ll be watching throughout the month.

Joe Terranova
Closing Out August

The capital markets continue to navigate through some strong headwinds in the form of softening economic data.

Joe Terranova
Initial Jobless Claims

1. Initial Jobless Claims fell 31,000 to 473,000

Joe Terranova
The Strongest Headwinds

The equity market recovery in July has encountered multiple headwinds in August. I believe it began with Wednesday, August 11th’s import data from China (Fig 1.1).

Joe Terranova
The Week Ahead: August 23

The capital markets continue to navigate through a period of heightened sensitivity to every economic report.

Joe Terranova
Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims rose 12,000 to 500,000

Joe Terranova
Germany's GDP Forecast Raised

The first half of 2010 was clearly as challenging a period for the euro zone as it has experienced since the creation of the euro itself.

Joe Terranova
The Week Ahead - August 16-20

The capital markets head into the final three weeks of August with light volume, abundant pessimism, and maximum frustration.

Joe Terranova
Why Are The Capital Markets Softening

On the morning of Wednesday, August 11, investors woke up to a significantly lower S&P 500.

Joe Terranova

During the mid-2000s, rising demand for agriculture from the emerging markets, in particular China, encouraged investors to actively incorporate agriculture investments in their portfolios.

Joe Terranova
Today's FOMC Meeting

CHANGE IN LANGUAGE – TONE: From the June 23rd meeting, 1st paragraph: “Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the economic recovery is proceeding and that the labor market is improving gradually. Household spending is increasing”

Joe Terranova
The Week Ahead - August 9

Last Friday’s disappointing jobs report and the post-market corporate news from Hewlett Packard (HPQ) should have vacationing money managers draining cell phone batteries checking in with the office early this week.

Joe Terranova
August Jobs Report

Overall employment fell by 131,000 jobs.

Joe Terranova
China PMI

During the last week of July, market expectations for the upcoming China PMI began to fall, somewhat dramatically.

Joe Terranova
Oil Market Update

Oil inventories continue to rise here in the United States; in fact, they are approaching the uncomfortably high levels of May 2009.

Joe Terranova
A Good Inning!

For all the negative sentiment that flavored our 4th of July bar-b-ques, I would say the month of July caught most money managers by surprise.

Joe Terranova
Getting Technical

On July 26, the S&P 500 Index closed above its 200 day moving average for the first time since June 21.

Joe Terranova
European Bank Stress Tests

Let's begin with a quick summary of the July 23rd Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) stress test for 91 European Banks.

Joe Terranova
Choke Up On The Bat

The S&P 500 Index aggressively declined 2.88% on Friday, July 16, quickly dropping the monthly gain for the Index to 3.315%.

Joe Terranova
Major Currency Markets

Remember the Dubai debt crisis? I believe most of us have forgotten by now about the Thanksgiving 2009 event that was predicted to roil the markets.

Joe Terranova
Money Flow

Historically, the first ten calendar of January, and “sometimes” in July as well, are a time for money managers to deploy fresh investor capital into the Equities market.

Joe Terranova
Week of July 12 Earnings Overview

Here we go - another round of earnings is upon us. For this reporting period, I am focused on what corporations will tell us, what guidance they will give.

Joe Terranova
Week of July 12 Earnings Reporting Calendar

During the week of July 12, 23 companies in the S&P 500 Index will report earnings.

Joe Terranova
Corporate Bonds Still In Play

Corporate Bonds – 6 reasons that an investment in Corporate Bonds is still warranted.

Joe Terranova
US Manufacturing – Double Dip?

One of the better indicators for telegraphing price direction in the capital markets is the ISM Manufacturing Survey.

Joe Terranova
Hurricanes and Housing

One of the better performing sectors since the credit crisis unfolded in the fall of 2008 has been technology.

Joe Terranova
Jobs, Double Dips and Obama's W

Former President George W. Bush was often playfully referred to as 'W.' Ironically, President Obama might have to deal with 'W' once again.

Joe Terranova
Coffee Reading Material

Unfortunately my last blog 'Two Minute Warning' accurately described a classic example of 'Good News, Bad Price Action'.

Joe Terranova
Two Minute Warning

Believe it or not, here we are. Sound the whistle - it is time for the two minute warning for the first half of 2010.

Joe Terranova
YUAN Dollar Peg Decision

On Saturday, June 26, G20 leaders will begin a two day summit in Toronto.

Joe Terranova
Stat Check

Wow, it’s already June 15!    Receiving a phone call to begin preparing for our next quarterly commentary is a gentle reminder that 2010 will soon be at the halfway point.

Joe Terranova
A Little Something for Everyone

Generally, markets spend more time consolidating, pausing before restoring either the prevailing bearish or bullish trend.

Joe Terranova
This Morning's Unemployment Report

Clearly, the absence of private sector job growth in this morning’s Unemployment Report is rather troubling.

Joe Terranova
Inflation? Deflation?

In my last quarterly commentary I briefly discussed the critical question coming into this year - what is the path for 10 year Treasury yields?

Joe Terranova
The First Week of June

First, let’s touch on the equity markets coming out of May. I currently remain “invested,” having moved in late May from “underweight” back toward “market weight.”

Joe Terranova
Seeking The Solution

After many years contributing to business network television, I appreciate the mindset of producers. Telling the story of the markets and pointing investors in the proper direction is important.

Joe Terranova
The Week Of May 24

Here it is, the final week of May. This time next weekend America pulls back the curtain on another summer season.

Joe Terranova
Why Not Just Go Short?

Over the past few weeks, I have had more than a few questions asking "why not just get short?" You suggest a "baseball season of frustration is upon us."

Joe Terranova
Takeaways From the SALT Conference 2010

I am back from Las Vegas and looking for thanks from my fellow New Yorkers for bringing back some Vegas weather - sorry I missed that Northeast rainstorm this week.

Joe Terranova
Capital Markets Update

Here we are happily one week removed from the 'Flash Crash' of Thursday May 6 and several days past the European Union’s 'shock and awe' defense of the euro.

Joe Terranova
That was a Bad Inning

In a 'Baseball Season of Frustration,' investors can certainly expect a bunch of strikeouts, caught stealing, and walks by the pitcher. Yesterday’s entire trading session was one lousy inning of baseball highlighted by some very wild pitches.

Joe Terranova
Thoughts On Early May Trading

I have a very reliable calculator that I am guessing is around 16 years old. As I get older, I unfortunately find myself using that calculator more and more.

Joe Terranova
Deepwater Horizon Rig Crisis

The events surrounding the Deepwater Horizon Rig crisis, which began on April 20, has now reached the impact point for oil prices.

Joe Terranova
Greetings From 34,989 Feet

Greetings from 34,989 feet above our great country. Let’s be exact - that is 34,989 feet above Omaha, Nebraska. Hello down there, Mr. Buffett.

Joe Terranova
Preparing For the FOMC Meeting

The Federal Open Market Committee meets Wednesday April 28, a one day event. During the credit crisis, which now feels like it didn't even occur; the FOMC added an additional day.

Joe Terranova
Heart of a Champion

By now, most of you know that I am a huge hockey fan. My love affair with the game was fostered during my childhood when I had the privilege of watching my favorite team, the New York Islanders, raise four Stanley Cup banners.

Joe Terranova
G-20 in Case You Missed It

G-20 leaders met over the weekend of April 23 in Washington D.C. – Some important takeaways.

Joe Terranova
For the Oil Doubters

Oil prices continue to “grind” higher despite the headwind of continued rising inventories and an OPEC consortium that, as usual, cannot adhere to their quotas.

Joe Terranova

Obviously, as I stated on the evening of Friday April 16, the most critical indicator for the week of April 19 might just be the reaction to the SEC / Goldman Sachs news as Asian markets open Sunday evening April 18.

Joe Terranova
Goldman Sachs 24 Hours Later

I believe in allowing time to pass before letting Mr. Mouth express any thought that is not internally questioned and properly reflected upon. So, 24 hours have passed, enough time for me to offer some thoughts on the SEC suing Goldman Sachs (GS) for fraud. The one thing that I keep focusing on is 'how this will impact the markets.' I will survive however it turns out for GS. Sorry, call me superficial, but that is my concern, and maybe yours as well so, let’s dig a little deeper.

Joe Terranova
DOW Transports vs. DOW Industrials

Heading into 2010, advocates of Dow Transport outperformance were chided in a similar fashion to our Virtus friend Pete Batchelar suggesting that his Montreal Canadiens can eliminate the Washington Capitals.

Joe Terranova
Treasury Yields

First, let me once again state what I told the students at the University of Connecticut School of Business back in early February - the best trade out there is to take a thirty year mortgage. I still believe that; it is a generational opportunity.

Joe Terranova
Energy Market Update

I am done with my Fast Money oil price predictions ($90 before $60), taking my official bow and stating that $87.09 on April 6th is good enough for me - close enough to $90.

Joe Terranova
Spend it even if you don’t have it!

Late last year on Fast Money, I began suggesting that the “affluent consumer” was significantly contributing to, and supporting, overall consumer spending.

Joe Terranova
Earnings For the Week of April 12

'Now leading off for the Bull Market - ALCOA (AA)!' Well, not exactly Derek Jeter or even Johnnie Damon (circa 2004 Bosox), but Alcoa (AA) it is.

Joe Terranova

Asset prices continue to slowly move higher as we begin the next earnings season. Investors need also pay attention to the Greece / ECB drama and some domestic economic events. Let's quickly highlight those events.

Joe Terranova
Heading into the end of March European Summit

Heading into the end of March European Summit, the 16 nations that comprise the European Union have one thing on their minds - the rapidly declining value of their currency.

Joe Terranova

Tuesday’s FOMC statement did little to stall the bullish momentum the Commodities space has exhibited during the month of March.

Joe Terranova
Spoiled Brats

Here I sit one week removed from the yearly family trip to Disney, utterly missing every minute of the trip. Certainly, my kids miss the trip, in particular the relaxed, no rules environment a vacation week with Dad brings.

Joe Terranova
The Quarter is coming to a close, some thoughts

Wow, basically we have two weeks left in the quarter. From a market action perspective it feels like it is still January 10th. Over the next two weeks I think the market will have support underneath it.

Joe Terranova
One Year Ago

So, here we are, one year removed from one of the greatest generational buying opportunities in the history of our capital markets.

Joe Terranova
3 Speeds

Back in December, I wrote about the correlation between a “sideways” market and the temptation to alter portfolio strategies. The 2004 and 1994 markets provide templates.

Joe Terranova
Under The Radar

Unfortunately most of the “meat" never gets exposed to investors; they just witness “the fat".

Joe Terranova
We have a suspect

One of the more frustrating components of investing is when your investment plan is challenged by an aggressive sell-off in the market.

Joe Terranova
Was it 10 for '10 or 5 for '10?

New decade, new beginning, a global economic recovery reflected in rising capital market prices.

Joe Terranova
One Man's Truck

Everybody knows that Americans love trucks. We buy them in all sizes and even sport them up more after the purchase. At this time last week, not many Americans figured that one man's love of a truck in Massachusetts would initiate a series of political events that ended the week of January 18th with the capital markets in disarray.

Joe Terranova
The Importance of January 21st

On Thursday, January 21st earnings reports will be released for Google, Goldman Sachs, American Express, and Freeport McMoRan.

Joe Terranova
Follow the Yellow Brick Road

Friday’s December jobs report provided a much needed reminder that the FOMC will stand by its accommodative policy for an extended period of time. For all the criticism Ben and his boys have taken this week, they have accurately assessed and addressed the stresses in the economy and the capital markets.

Joe Terranova
No Quiet Markets Here

The litany of predictions for 2010 all seemed to suggest tepid performance for the capital markets. I myself have suggested that volatility, as measured by the VIX, will continue its current trend lower.

Joe Terranova
Here we are in 2010

Here we are in 2010 and, for all those who are preparing for dramatic changes, I posit that the sun still rose in similar fashion to 2009.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Virtus Investment Partners provides this communication as a matter of general information. The opinions stated herein are those of the author and not necessarily the opinions of Virtus, its affiliates or its subadvisers. Portfolio managers at Virtus make investment decisions in accordance with specific client guidelines and restrictions. As a result, client accounts may differ in strategy and composition from the information presented herein. Any facts and statistics quoted are from sources believed to be reliable, but they may be incomplete or condensed and we do not guarantee their accuracy. This communication is not an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any security, and it is not a research report. Individuals should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.