September Nonfarm Payroll Report


Thanks to the D.C. dysfunction, the September nonfarm payroll report was released 18 days later than expected.  Accordingly, the October report has been pushed back one week from Friday, November 1, to Friday, November 8.

Let’s take a look at the September report…

  • September nonfarm payrolls rose 148,000, below consensus estimates of +180,000
    • August nonfarm payrolls were revised higher to +193,000 from a previously reported +169,000
  • September private payrolls rose 126,000, below consensus estimates of +180,000
    • August private payrolls were revised higher to +161,000 from a previously reported +152,000
  • The September unemployment rate (Figure 1) fell to 7.2% from August’s 7.3%
  • The labor force participation rate (Figure 2) was unchanged at 63.2%
  • The underemployment rate fell in September to 13.6% from August’s 13.7%
  • September manufacturing jobs rose 2,000, below consensus estimates of +5,000
    • August manufacturing jobs were revised lowered to +13,000 from a previously reported +14,000
  • Average weekly hours worked were unchanged at 34.5
  • Average hourly earnings year-on-year rose 2.1%, below August’s revised higher 2.3% from 2.2% previously
  • Average hourly earnings month-on-month rose +0.1%, below August’s revised higher +0.3% from +0.2% previously


In the wake of the payroll report, the S&P 500® Index (SPX) (Figure 3) traded to another new all-time high of 1759.33, and the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury (Figure 4) fell to 2.5106%. The D.C. dysfunction and tepid jobs report are evidence that the FOMC’s ability to taper its monthly asset purchase program will be pushed back to the March 18-19, 2014 meeting at the earliest.

Besides the September payroll report, construction spending (Figure 5) for August was also reported this morning, coming in at +0.6% month-on-month. That figure was better than the consensus estimate of +0.4%. July’s previously reported +0.6% was also revised higher to +1.4%.

So while secular challenges remain for domestic labor conditions, other metrics of the economy continue to suggest acceleration in U.S. growth over the coming months.

Lastly, 131 SPX companies have now reported earnings. Overall SPX sales growth is tracking at +2.16% and overall SPX EPS growth is tracking at +5.54%.

Figure 1 U.S. Unemployment Rate, 2008 to Present
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Source: Bloomberg

Figure 2 U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate, 2007 to Present
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Source: Bloomberg

Figure 3 S&P 500 Index (SPX), Prior 365 Days
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Source: Bloomberg

Figure 4 U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield, Prior 365 Days
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Source: Bloomberg

Figure 5 U.S. Total Construction Spending, Prior 365 Days
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Source: Bloomberg

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

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