2015 Consensus Views


In a forthcoming update, I will offer three lessons learned from 2014 that are applicable to 2015. One of these lessons relates to my expectations that it will probably be better to ‘rent’ than ‘own’ assets aligned with the consensus view. In 2014, that certainly was the more profitable strategy.

With that in mind, here are some consensus views for 2015, in no particular order:

  • Gridlock prevails in Washington D.C.
  • No action taken on Keystone XL, oil export ban, corporate tax rates, repatriation
  • U.S. GDP: 3%
  • U.S. unemployment rate: 5.5%
  • U.S. CPI (Core): 1.75%
  • U.S. budget as a % of GDP: 2.60%
  • S&P 500® Index earnings reach $130
  • S&P 500 Index average price target 2200
  • S&P 500 Index low price forecast 2100
  • Energy and materials to be ignored
  • Technology and consumer discretionary to be adored
  • Growth over value
  • Cyclical over defensive
  • Large caps over small caps
  • Higher U.S. $, Yen breaks 120, Euro breaks 120
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury yield
    • Q1: 2.63%, Q2: 2.83%, Q3: 3.01%, Q4: 3.17%
  • U.S. Fed funds target rate
    • Q1: 0.25%, Q2: 0.40%, Q3: 0.65%, Q4: 0.95%
  • WTI Oil Q3: $90.40
  • Gold Q3: $1165
  • Eurozone GDP: 1.2%, Japan GDP: 1.0%, Germany GDP: 1.4%, China GDP: 7.0%
  • Most prominent 2015 election: United Kingdom’s general election in May

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Virtus Investment Partners provides this communication as a matter of general information. The opinions stated herein are those of the author and not necessarily the opinions of Virtus, its affiliates or its subadvisers. Portfolio managers at Virtus make investment decisions in accordance with specific client guidelines and restrictions. As a result, client accounts may differ in strategy and composition from the information presented herein. Any facts and statistics quoted are from sources believed to be reliable, but they may be incomplete or condensed and we do not guarantee their accuracy. This communication is not an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any security, and it is not a research report. Individuals should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.