Newfound SiteManagerAs January goes, so goes the year? the start of a new year, we expect an onslaught of “as goes January, so goes the year” posts. It is fitting, then, to revisit a blog we wrote on this topic in January of last year.2014-01-15T00:00:00-05:00The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Simplicity blog: the unreasonable effectiveness of simplicity when it comes to tactical or strategic portfolio construction.2013-12-05T00:00:00-05:00Momentum Everywhere we normally point to the persistence of momentum across asset classes, geography, and history as evidence that it must be an innate factor within market participants, I came across an interesting New York Times article from 2007 about a study that exhibited momentum in a very different field.2013-09-23T00:00:00-04:00Market Complexity Magnitudes Newfound, we argue that for models to be successful and robust in uncertain environments, they must be based on simple heuristics tied to a fundamental or economic concept, not based on complex decision rules.2013-07-05T00:00:00-04:00High Debt-To-GDP Implies Low Growth? Not So Fast… interesting rebuke to the oft-quoted 2010 paper “Growth in a Time of Debt”1 by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff was recently announced.2013-04-22T00:00:00-04:00Weather, Earthquakes, and Portfolio Risk Management his book The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don’t, Nate Silver discusses the many subtleties of developing and utilizing predictive models. 2013-04-03T00:00:00-04:00