I have frequently mentioned the amazing similarities between the 2003 Capital Markets and the 2009 Capital Markets. Unfortunately, investors seem to only focus on the Equities performance.
The avalanche of ETFs and their impact on the capital markets has become a hotly debated topic. My take is that like everything else in life, some are good, and some aren’t so good. However, I am rather certain that the introduction of currency ETFs is a positive for investors.
What a difference 365 days can make. This time last year, the Commodity space as an asset class was in the grips of a massive de-leveraging process that brought several commodities to the lower end of their decade trading ranges.
COMMENT ON THE DECEMBER 16, 2009 FOMC STATEMENT
I continue to believe that a focus on when the FOMC will raise the Fed Funds Rate is incorrect.
Having spent the better part of my adult life monitoring and trading the price of Oil, I owe it to “Black Gold” to provide its own individual 2010 Outlook. I will cover the rest of the Commodity space for 2010 in the waning days of '09 and yes, I will address the game changing XOM / XTO deal and its impact on the Natural Gas industry.
2010: S&P 500 INDEX
In a separate blog post, I discuss the Dubai situation and its potential impact on investor portfolios. Monday November 30 will be the first full trading day since the news broke in the early hours on Thanksgiving.
In recent years, Americans have grown familiar with Dubai, the most populous state within the United Arab Emirates (UAE). We easily can identify with their free trade, tourism, and open markets.
The Week Ahead Nov.23- Nov. 27
Expect light volume this week due to the holiday shortened trading week. The investment community is focusing on next week’s critical unemployment report. Last week, the S&P 500 Index finally traded above 1100.00. However,
Is 2010 = 2004
As we move closer to the end of 2009, the dramatic recovery in the capital markets continues to present itself in similar fashion to the capital markets recovery in 2003.
AJ or Andy
My apologies to all those Yankee bashers who labor through my blog postings only to find my extreme affection for the 2009 World Series champions.
We know how far we have come
The market brings some excellent positive momentum into the week of October 12th. Investors should be focused on the market’s ability to extend the momentum and “breakout” beyond the September 23rd FOMC highs.
I am in a great mood and you should be too!
What a beautiful day! I am on my way into the mountains of Pennsylvania to pick out a yellow lab puppy for the family. It's a beautiful day, my Yanks looked great last night, and how about our market! What happened to Armageddon?
Where is the V?
Recent economic data clearly highlights that the hope for a V shaped economic recovery is premature. The durable goods and ISM figures confusingly portray an industrial sector that has stabilized and exhibits signs of modest growth, but not aggressive expansion.
For the week of October 5th
This week, there will be a modest shift away from Global and Domestic Economic reports toward the beginning of the Q3 earnings season.
The first trading day of September certainly played into the fears of those expecting a significant 2009 market correction to line up perfectly with the historically challenged month of September. My opinion heading into the September/October period was that, like a good boxer, the market just needed to take "the jabs" and stay on its feet. Happily, the market did just that and survived the month.
Rising equity prices, better profits. What comes next for corporations? Capital spending. Right now capital spending rests near a 40 year low as corporations are still cautious about spending capital to invest. However, sooner or later, you have to come out of the foxhole.
Week of September 28th
S and P - Case-Shiller Home Price Index 9am Is the "freefall" in home prices nationwide truly over? We will gain further evidence Tuesday morning @ 9am eastern. The S and P - Case-Shiller home price index gained 2.9 percent in the second quarter from the previous three months, the first increase since 2006.
The price of Crude Oil has been a hot topic this week as it has uncharacteristically underperformed relative to other risky asset prices. In fact, the spot price has settled below its' critical 100 day moving average (67.19) for the 1st time since Q1. However, I caution investors, and those SUV loyalists, not to get too excited about a potential 'plunge' in Oil prices or change their investment strategy.
Even raging market bulls can have a concern, whether it is about the economy or the market itself. I have flagged my concerns about the Fed's exit strategy over the past 6 months. Tremendous liquidity has been poured into the economy and it must be removed shortly.
For the week of September 21st
Call me cynical, but the math for healthcare reform just doesn't add up. The plan covers more people, reduces the current cost for existing policy holders, and will not increase the deficit - sounds rather magical
Reflections on Lehman - The Corporate Bond Market
Over the past two weeks, I have sat down and taped several different pieces for CNBC. These segments are different; they might be used beyond the borders of CNBC and into the mother ship's, NBC Universal's, territory.
Fatherhood is great this time of year. Blessed with two boys, ages 3 and 4, the TV attraction has shifted from Disney to SportsCenter. They like their MLB standings printed out in the morning, of course loving the team that resides at the top.
September "That's not Happiness to see me"
In the August 2009 Blue Chip Financial Indicators Survey, 39 out of 46 participants expect a rate hike by the end of 2010. If I had been surveyed, it would have been 39 out of 47. I can’t see a rate hike ahead of 2010 elections and with a continued troubling unemployment picture.
A quiet summer Friday night on Fast Money, not so Fast
Something has been bothering me about President Obama. I can't understand why the closest "Presidential" anything that has come to Wall Street since President Obama took office in January was Air Force One's ridiculous lower Manhattan flyover.
For the week of August 31st
Every money manager experiences what I like to call "The Conundrum Ride." You have the kids in the backseat, your wife next to you, and too much traffic in front of you.
Ben Bernanke Nomination
Ben Bernanke to be nominated by President Obama for second term as Federal Reserve Chief. Chairman Bernanke has done an excellent job navigating this deflationary crisis.
Reading 10 quick takeaways
As a kid, I never liked to read - forget those summer reading assignments. I preferred to re-enact the batting stance of the '78 Yankees as my friends and I played out the '78 Yankees / Red Sox pennant race at our wiffle ball field in Valley Stream, NY.
For the week of August 24th
For the week of August 24th - here are the events that matter on the economic calendar.
Significant attention has been paid over the past few days to the tepid performance of the Chinese equity market during the month of August. Incorrectly, this is being portrayed as an indicator for the direction of our domestic equity market. Understand that what was the stabilizing force, domestically and globally, during the winter of our discontent was the Chinese economy, not the equity market.
The news of the death of the "ZIMDOLLAR" will spread this week beyond the research quarters of Wall Street firms to Main Stream America.
For the week of August 17th
The Federal Reserve should be applauded for understanding the deflationary environment and concurrently supporting risky asset prices, as a buyer of last resort.
Virtus Investment Partners provides this communication as a matter of general information. The opinions stated herein are those of the author and not necessarily the opinions of Virtus, its affiliates or its subadvisers. Portfolio managers at Virtus make investment decisions in accordance with specific client guidelines and restrictions. As a result, client accounts may differ in strategy and composition from the information presented herein. Any facts and statistics quoted are from sources believed to be reliable, but they may be incomplete or condensed and we do not guarantee their accuracy. This communication is not an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any security, and it is not a research report. Individuals should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.