On August 2, the passage of the Budget Control Act of 2011 created the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction, otherwise known as the “Super Committee.”
China Economic Data
Here on Long Island, the leaves on the trees have yet to fall, giving us a false sense of how close to the end of 2011 we really are.
Italian Bond Yields Jump
Italian bond yields (Figures 1.1 & 1.2) have risen rather dramatically this week despite some political actions that should eventually lead to a favorable resolution for the European Union’s third largest economy, Italy.
U.S. Jobs Reports
Consistent with other recent non-recessionary economic data releases, the positive revisions in this morning’s U.S. jobs report should end the debate over whether the U.S. economy is entering another recession.
Ceiling not raised, floor to be challenged
At the end of a historic October, the market was positioned to “raise the ceiling” toward the 1300 to 1325 range.
China PMI was reported at 50.4, down from last month’s 51.2 and below consensus estimates for 51.8.
U.S. ISM Manufacturing
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported 50.8 for its Manufacturing Index, a decline from last month’s 51.6 and below consensus estimates for 52.0.
Thursday morning, October 27, global markets awoke to an equities rally fueled by the appearance of European fiscal and monetary unity.
Last week, Caterpillar CEO Doug Oberhelman’s post-earnings comments shed light on global manufacturing conditions.
Philly Fed Turns Positive
Financial institutions, when measured in terms of their dismal year-to-date equity price performance, appear eerily similar to the summer of 2008 when cash was about to be king and the Great Recession was confirmed.
China October Economic Data Review
Beginning with the October 1 release of the China PMI Manufacturing report, several economic reports from China have been released over the past few weeks.
Some Interesting Technical Setups
Given the current market riot, I want all investors to keep two things in mind. First, keep it simple works best in this environment. Don’t attempt to implement any complicated strategies or analyze beyond the obvious. Second, in a time of panic, do exactly the opposite of what feels “easiest” to do. What is harder will work best
FOMC Meeting Preview
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets Tuesday and Wednesday this week for the sixth time this year. There will not be a post-meeting press conference for Chairman Bernanke on Wednesday. After this meeting, there remains two FOMC meeting in 2011 – November 2 and December 13.
Moving Energy Back to Overweight
In my May 4 blog “Moving Energy from Market Weight from Overweight,” I explained my reasons for the downgrade of the sector.
The American Jobs Act
In response to Standard and Poor’s downgrade of the U.S. long-term credit rating, let’s look at the potential consequences for the U.S. Government debt market.
July U.S. Jobs Report
The July U.S. Jobs report was released the morning of August 5. Leading up to this day, the S&P 500® Index had endured four days of intensive selling pressure, taking the Index down almost 7%.
Budget Control Act of 2011
Most of you have heard me suggest that the best investment strategies are usually the simplest.
Late Sunday, July 31, the National Bureau of Statistics released July’s China Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).
U.S. ISM Manufacturing
U.S. ISM Manufacturing for July was reported at 50.9, well below the 54.5 consensus and June’s 55.3 figure.
Since my last (July 21) blog entry, “Push-Pull Continues,” I have spent much of my time reviewing the favorable and unfavorable conditions currently limiting appreciation in the capital markets.
Global markets are declining in sympathy with the Nikkei 225, as that equity market has tumbled over 10% from Monday’s close.
EU Summit and Japan
Over the weekend at a special European Summit, the 17 heads of state agreed to measures that I expect will be favorable for the value of the euro, as well as the regional economy.
China’s Export and Import Growth Slows
China’s import and export growth slowed in February. I believe two conditions impacted the slowdown - the Lunar New Year and tighter monetary policy.
What do currencies tell us?
HEADLINE POINTS: The unemployment rate (Fig 1.1) declined to 9% from 9.4%, a significant surprise versus consensus estimate for a rise to 9.5%
The Data Matters
After the market closed on Friday January 28, I suggested that the unrest in Egypt, and that day’s troublesome market price action, placed the market in as vulnerable a position, heading into a weekend, as we had seen since early last summer.
FOMC Meeting, No News Is Good News
One of my favorite indicators during the past 24 months has been “The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Index” – released on the first business day of each calendar month.
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