Virtus Newfleet Core Plus Bond Fund

4Q22

Market Review

The final quarter of 2022 saw a recurrence of negative macro themes that dominated this year: inflation, geopolitical tensions, China’s COVID policy, and an uncertain growth outlook. However, we may be starting to see the first signs of green shoots. Global central banks moved policy rates higher during the quarter amid consistent messaging on their efforts to return inflation levels to target. The market’s debate on central bank policy is now focused on the pace of rate increases, the ultimate terminal rate, and how long it stays at that level. A few bright spots of economic data released during the quarter – including U.S. CPI – implied inflation may have peaked, leading markets to expect friendlier central bank policy going forward. As a result, most risk assets have rebounded during the period.

Despite some signs of improvement in the inflation outlook, the Fed and other major central banks maintained a hawkish tone. The Fed raised its main policy rate 125 basis points (bps) during the quarter in two jumbo moves of 75 bps and 50 bps. We end 2022 with the federal funds rate at 4.5% versus 0.25% when we began. The Fed continues to shrink its balance sheet in a well-telegraphed and substantially passive exercise, and we do not expect changes to this policy in the near term.

The European Central Bank (ECB) also raised its policy rate 125 bps over two meetings to end the year at 2.5% − 2022 saw the ECB’s first increases off zero since 2016. In addition to managing the start of its own balance sheet run-off, the ECB will have to manage the complex task of preventing financial fragmentation among its member countries. Though the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is still a relative dove given local economic conditions, it announced a change in its yield curve control that would permit a rise in the 10-year yield from 25 bps to 50 bps. Global central banking has a complicated task ahead, but we are confident in its ability to contain inflation and return price pressures to target over time.

Financial markets have begun to expect positive changes to monetary policy in 2023, and this was reflected in total returns during the period. The U.S. Treasury curve shifted higher on maturities inside of two years and longer than ten years, with yields in the belly of the curve declining: the 1-year Treasury yield increased 72 bps, the 5-year Treasury yield fell by 9 bps, the 10-year Treasury yield increased by 5 bps, and the 30-year Treasury yield moved 19 bps higher. Most spread sectors outperformed U.S. Treasuries with the shifting economic conditions.

Despite the quarter’s volatility, we see value being restored across most of the fixed income sectors in which we invest. We expect supply chains will heal over time and the Fed will be successful in returning inflation to acceptable levels. We continue to watch the economic data to inform our views on the possibility of recession. While our base case is still that any contraction would be mild, recession risks have risen. As the markets digest global developments, we continue to believe active sector and issuer selection is critical to take advantage of market volatility as it arises. Our approach to fixed income – the approach we have implemented for over three decades – enables us to scan the bond market for the most attractive investment opportunities and is ideally suited for the current environment.

How the Fund Performed

The Fund (Class I, Accumulating) returned 1.63% in the fourth quarter versus the U.S. Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index return of 1.87%.

An underweight to U.S. Treasuries contributed to performance as most spread sectors outperformed Treasuries due to lower-than-expected inflation data. Allocation and issue selection within corporate high yield had a positive impact on performance. A supportive technical environment, along with better-than-expected inflation data and third quarter earnings results, drove outperformance.

Issue selection within corporate investment grade had a positive impact on performance. Investment grade staged a rally in the quarter, clawing back nearly 4% of its YTD performance, though the sector still posted record annual losses. Yields, spreads, prices, and returns all pulled back from the tail end of the distribution on a confluence of favorable inflation data, resilient company earnings, and improving sentiment for the asset class. Issue selection within high yield bank loans had a positive impact on performance. As investor angst increases around slowing growth and its impact on credit markets, our current up-in-quality position has performed well.

Conversely, the Fund’s allocation to non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) over agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) had a negative impact on performance. Agency MBS outperformed as the market reacted positively to the softer-than-expected CPI report, causing a grab for yield. We continue to prefer non-agency residential exposure as credit performance is still stable, prepayments are muted, and spreads are still wide versus alternative fixed income sectors. Finally, allocation to asset-backed securities (ABS) had a negative impact on performance during the quarter. The primary drivers were modest spread underperformance relative to most other fixed income sectors, and U.S. Treasury underperformance on the short end of the curve. The spread widening was due to some softening in consumer fundamentals. However, low unemployment and a high number of job openings mitigate the effects of higher rates on the consumer.

Current Fund Strategy

Reduced exposure to U.S. Treasuries and RMBS. Increased exposure to corporate investment grade. In addition to changes to the Fund’s sector allocation, we continue to optimize positioning within sectors based on our view of the best relative value.

EM Debt and Non-U.S. Exposure: Our exposure was slightly higher during the quarter, with high yield EM outperforming investment grade. While we feel as though USD strength has peaked, we have not yet added non-USD exposure to the Fund. Our exposure to EM has stayed at historically low levels. Investment Grade Corporates: After declining more than 20% at the lows, the investment grade market rallied in the fourth quarter, with total returns of 3.63%. The full year total return of -15.76% is still the worst on record. Spreads rallied 25 bps up to the 130s, a level that hits the 75th percentile over a five-year range, but just 10 bps north of the five-year average. Yields are still at post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) highs, though they compressed more than 80 bps off the YTD highs. As fundamentals improved throughout the post-COVID period and interest coverage levels stay at decade highs, we are constructive on the asset class. Higher rates will have minimal immediate impact to issuer fundamentals because the average maturity is over eleven years in length. We are overweight financials and commodities and find banks to be the most attractive industry. We are also overweight BBB-rated bonds because we are constructive on the market's fundamentals, and view fallen angel risk as broadly low. Corporate High Yield: The high yield market rallied over 4% during the quarter as spreads tightened over 80 bps. Better-than-expected inflation data was the primary driver of the rally. Third quarter results also came in better than expected, and fundamentals are in a strong starting point ahead of this year’s projected slowdown in growth. Lastly, the technical environment has improved – issuance was light again for the quarter while fund flows improved, leading to a net negative supply. During the quarter, we trimmed exposure to corporate high yield as valuations tightened; we still view its downside risks as being greater than its upside potential at current valuations. Within the space, most purchases were via the new issue market, where concessions are still elevated. We trimmed some lower-quality energy exposure during the quarter following strong outperformance. Our allocation is still below our long-term average. Securitized: All securitized sectors saw positive returns, driven by the rate rally and tighter credit spreads. We still see yield opportunities not seen in many years. In the near term, low unemployment, strong consumer savings, and real wage growth suggest that the U.S. consumer will stay timely with its debt service payments. However, we are selective with our transactions, as we believe unemployment will tick higher, which may result in higher consumer delinquencies. On the mortgage side, delinquencies are at historical lows, with limited to no affordability products compared to the market in the last housing crisis. With higher mortgage rates and a subsequent fall in housing activity, we will see less supply for the new year. This should set up a favorable technical for the mortgage-backed securities market. As a result, our portfolios have an overweight to the sector.

Outlook

Our multi-sector relative value approach enables us to take advantage of opportunities when events that trigger volatility, such as inflation worries or the Russian invasion of Ukraine, affect valuations. In the current environment, we believe some of the best total return and yield opportunities can be found in spread sectors. However, given the increased risk of a recession, we have reduced some exposure to spread sectors that would typically be more negatively impacted, such as corporate high yield and bank loans. Credit selection and positioning remain key. Specific sectors that demonstrate the best relative value for us include:

• Out-of-index/off-the-run ABS
• Non-agency RMBS
• Corporate investment grade